Weaken CR

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[email protected]: Legendary Member; Posts: 934; Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2010 5:16 amFollowed by: 14 members; Location: AAMCHI MUMBAI LOCAL; Thanked: 63 times

by [email protected] » Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:47 pm

Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city's 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city's residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor. All of the following statements weaken the analyst's argument, EXCEPT:

"¢ In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates' positions on abortion.

"¢ Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.

"¢ Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.

"¢ The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.

"¢ Just under 30% of the city's residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.

The OA is B. I feel the OA should be A. I think A strengths the argument.
how can A weaken the argument.

could any of you give a detailed explanation for this question...

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Source: Beat The GMAT — Critical Reasoning | Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:47 pm

avik.ch: Legendary Member; Posts: 641; Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:15 amFollowed by: 32 members; Thanked: 149 times; GMAT Score:760

by avik.ch » Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:09 pm

Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor.
Candidate A --- > supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city's 9,000 illegal immigrants
Candidate B ----> do not supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city's 9,000 illegal immigrants

60% of the resident ----> do not supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city's 9,000 illegal immigrants
35% of the resident -------> supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city's 9,000 illegal immigrants

Conclusion : the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor

Assumption : candidate voting decision is based on this issue (dealing with the immigrants) only.

So to weaken we can show that Candidate's voting decision is based on some other factors - X.--
In A - X is abortion. So this rejects the conclusion.

Hope this helps !!

Last edited by avik.ch on Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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VivianKerr: GMAT Instructor; Posts: 1035; Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2010 11:13 amFollowed by: 365 members; Location: Los Angeles, CA; Thanked: 474 times

by VivianKerr » Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:33 pm

Conclusion: Candidate who does NOT support the plan will win.

Evidence: 60% of the residents oppose/35% support.

Assumption: That the majority of the voters support the plane (i.e. the 60%/35% breakdown accurately represents those who will vote).

Question: What will STRENGTHEN?

Prediction: Anything that aligns the resident-poll with voting accurately, or tips the favor into the hands of those against the plan.

A. Abortion is out of scope.
B. If the 35% who are supportive might change their minds, this would strengthen the anti-plan contingent. Correct.
C. This hurts the conclusion.
D. This hurts the conclusion by showing the city re-elects the candidate who only has 35% support.
E. This only tells us info about those that support it -- we need to know whether the 60% who don't support it can/will vote.

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avik.ch: Legendary Member; Posts: 641; Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:15 amFollowed by: 32 members; Thanked: 149 times; GMAT Score:760

by avik.ch » Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:42 pm

VivianKerr wrote:Conclusion: Candidate who does NOT support the plan will win.

Evidence: 60% of the residents oppose/35% support.

Assumption: That the majority of the voters support the plane (i.e. the 60%/35% breakdown accurately represents those who will vote).

Question: What will STRENGTHEN?

Prediction: Anything that aligns the resident-poll with voting accurately, or tips the favor into the hands of those against the plan.

A. Abortion is out of scope.

Hi Vivian,

Doesn't A shows another factor that will determine candidate's voting decision - as here the assumption is - candidate voting decision is based on dealing with immigrants.

Please help !!

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lunarpower: GMAT Instructor; Posts: 3380; Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 1:20 amFollowed by: 1535 members; Thanked: 2256 times; GMAT Score:800

by lunarpower » Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:42 am

vivian --

VivianKerr wrote:Conclusion: Candidate who does NOT support the plan will win.

Evidence: 60% of the residents oppose/35% support.

Assumption: That the majority of the voters support the plane (i.e. the 60%/35% breakdown accurately represents those who will vote).

Question: What will STRENGTHEN?

Prediction: Anything that aligns the resident-poll with voting accurately, or tips the favor into the hands of those against the plan.

A. Abortion is out of scope.
B. If the 35% who are supportive might change their minds, this would strengthen the anti-plan contingent. Correct.
C. This hurts the conclusion.
D. This hurts the conclusion by showing the city re-elects the candidate who only has 35% support.
E. This only tells us info about those that support it -- we need to know whether the 60% who don't support it can/will vote.

yep. well done... except for the interpretation (in capital letters) of the question.
"which one of the following does not weaken the argument" DOES NOT mean that you have to find a strengthener! it could just as well mean that you have to find something that's irrelevant.

also, (a) actually weakens the argument because abortion is "out of scope".

Last edited by lunarpower on Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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avik.ch: Legendary Member; Posts: 641; Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:15 amFollowed by: 32 members; Thanked: 149 times; GMAT Score:760

by avik.ch » Mon Feb 06, 2012 5:42 am

Ron, Vivian,

Can you please help me on how A is out of scope. Doesn't A shows a different factor on which the voting decisions are based on i.e abortion. The stimulus don't mention about voting decision - we are assuming that supporting/opposing the plan and voting decision are linked.

Please help.

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lunarpower: GMAT Instructor; Posts: 3380; Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 1:20 amFollowed by: 1535 members; Thanked: 2256 times; GMAT Score:800

by lunarpower » Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:37 pm

avik.ch wrote:Ron, Vivian,

Can you please help me on how A is out of scope. Doesn't A shows a different factor on which the voting decisions are based on i.e abortion. The stimulus don't mention about voting decision - we are assuming that supporting/opposing the plan and voting decision are linked.

Please help.

that choice actually weakens the argument, because abortion is not the issue mentioned in the passage.

the point of the passage is that polling results concerning the immigration issue will be predictive of the election result. if voters actually make their decisions mostly according to other issues (such as abortion, in this case), then this conclusion is tremendously weakened. if that's how voters make their decisions, then the polling results cited in the passage will have essentially no predictive power at all.

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