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by Tim Kim » Tue Jun 17, 2014 9:21 am
The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.

"Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields."



The author's recommendation endorsed in this argument is that we should expect dramatic improvement of the job market for people seeking college-level teaching positions with their graduate degrees. This suggestion lies on the premise that the demographic trends predict an increase number of people whom will be reaching college age in the next 10 years.

The primary issue with the author's reasoning is based on his flawed premise that demographic trends is the key determinative study of his assertion; for example, there is no guarantee that all people at their college age will continue their study. Some might dropout and the number of people who actually will go to college will remain questionable. Thus, the author's conclusion lacks any legitimate evidentiary support and renders his argument unacceptable.

The second issue to be addressed is that the author fails to account other possible contributing factors; for example, there might have been several possible factors to unemployment of the graduate degree holders such as high prerequisites apart from the graduate degree. This is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out.

Lastly, the author makes several assumptions that remain unproven. The author stated that people from Waymarsh University especially have hard time finding jobs compared to the others. However, there is no explanation behind this assumption, which makes this whole assumption irrelevant to the original argument; thus does not support his argument.

In conclusion, unfortunately, we should not expect a dramatic jump of the college teaching vacancy on the basis of this significantly undermined statement. The author must provide stronger support in order to convince the readers. Moreover, such strong evidence would have to involve examining and eliminating other possible causal factors.
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