Hi AnjaliOberoi,

This CR prompt is based on "causality" - the idea that one thing will cause another thing to happen. When dealing with causality, there are a number of assumptions, but the primary assumption is that "everything else will stay the same."

The Facts:
-In the past, a 10% increase in cigarette prices has decreased per-capita sales by 4% in Coponia.
-Coponia is about to raise taxes on cigarettes by 9 cents (the current price of cigarettes averages 90 cents/pack, so this represents a 10% increase in price).

The Conclusion:
-The tax hike stands an excellent chance of reducing per-capita sales by 4%.

The Logic:
With this new tax, the conclusion that per-capita sales would drop by 4% seems logical (based on historical data). For this causal argument to hold true, we have to assume that "everything else stays the same" - the number of smokers, the population, the fixed price per pack of cigarettes before this new tax takes effect, etc. We have to assume that the cigarette companies won't lower the price of cigarettes to offset the tax. The only answer that addresses the issue that everything will stay the same is Answer A.

GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich

Hi AnjaliOberoi,

CR prompts that are based on Causality must assume that everything else stays the same because if other things changed, then there'd be no way to present a causality-based argument.

Here's an example:

There's a strong causal argument that regularly exercising leads to a healthier life. If you don't exercise now, but start exercising regularly, then you'll probably get in "better shape", lose weight, etc. This assumes that everything else in your life will stay about the same. If, however, you start eating LOTS of junk food, then you might get in "worse shape", gain weight, etc., even though you're exercising. The argument for the benefits of exercising regularly are built on the assumption that the other aspects of your life will stay consistent.

GMAT CR prompts are built on that same general idea: everything else stays the same.

As to your other question, Answer D is irrelevant to the prompt. The current amount of tax on cigarettes in Coponia has no effect on the issue. The country is about to RAISE TAXES 9 cents, meaning that it's a new tax that wasn't there before and this new tax will decrease sales.

GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich