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Surveys in Domorica indicate that only 10 percent of Domoric

Expert replies
by gmatquant25 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:27 am
Surveys in Domorica indicate that only 10 percent of Domoricans in their twenties read a newspaper regularly, while more than half of all Domoricans over thirty read a newspaper regularly. Although Domoricans in their twenties constitute a large proportion of the population, newspaper publishers nonetheless predict that ten years from now, the percentage of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper will probably be no lower than it is today.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the newspaper publishers' prediction?

A. The number of Domoricans in their twenties is less than the number of Domoricans over thirty.
B. The number of newspapers in Domorica has been gradually increasing over the past several decades.
C. The proportion of Domoricans in their twenties who regularly read a newspaper has always been low.
D. The surveys defined a regular reader of a newspaper as someone who reads a newspaper more than twice a week.
E. The proportion of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper was higher 20 years ago than it is today.

Source :gmatprep
OA C
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Source: — Critical Reasoning |

by mevicks » Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:09 am
gmatquant25 wrote:Surveys in Domorica indicate that only 10 percent of Domoricans in their twenties read a newspaper regularly, while more than half of all Domoricans over thirty read a newspaper regularly. Although Domoricans in their twenties constitute a large proportion of the population, newspaper publishers nonetheless predict that ten years from now, the percentage of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper will probably be no lower than it is today.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the newspaper publishers' prediction?

A. The number of Domoricans in their twenties is less than the number of Domoricans over thirty.
This is a number vs percentage trap. Various numbers could be used to still verify that the proportion is still greater

B. The number of newspapers in Domorica has been gradually increasing over the past several decades.
We need information about the readers, this one gives information about the number of newspaper.

C. The proportion of Domoricans in their twenties who regularly read a newspaper has always been low.
This points out that those in 20s would become regular readers when they cross the age of 30. Those who are currently in their 30s never read much (when they were in the 20s), but now they do read regularly!

D. The surveys defined a regular reader of a newspaper as someone who reads a newspaper more than twice a week.
Out of scope: Frequency of reading is irrelevant

E. The proportion of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper was higher 20 years ago than it is today.
Out of scope: Just compares the trends

Source :gmatprep
OA C
Mapping:

Proportion of people in the 20s is large.
But only few (10%) of those in 20s
AND
More than 50% of those in 30s
Read a newspaper daily

Conclusion: In ten years down the line percentage of people reading newspaper daily >= Now
Any point strengthening our conclusion should be a valid answer.
[spoiler]Answer : C[/spoiler]

Regards,
Vivek
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by ceilidh.erickson » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:29 am
Vivek's explanation is great. Just a general theme to keep in mind - pay attention whenever an argument talks about a CHANGE OVER TIME. We always have to question whether populations and behaviors will stay consistent over time.

The missing piece in the original argument was - will the people in their twenties maintain the same behavior over time, or will they change? Or alternatively, will the demographics in Domorica change? C is the only answer choice that speaks to habits changing over time.

For more on changes over time:
https://www.beatthegmat.com/og-13-ques-1 ... tml#695921
Ceilidh Erickson
EdM in Mind, Brain, and Education
Harvard Graduate School of Education
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by yuvraj.sub » Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:48 am
Wouldn't we be assuming in this case that what holds true in the past will also be true in the future? It is a very weak strengthen in my opinion or am I missing a point?
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