I did get A for this answer.
You know the second (bottom) route will DEFINITELY exit at Y. So there is 1/2 already or 50%. So you need to determine how many chances you have from the first route.
So let's just follow the map here. Remember, we're starting from 50%.
First split - 50/50 again or 50/50 of (50%) which comes out 25%/25%. You know the bottom route follows the error to Y. So you have another 25% chance.
So far, you have 50% + 25%.
now the top split, (which was 25% left over) it splits again; one going to X and another going down to Y. So that's another 50/50 of 25%, which equals 12.5% each.
So now you have 50% + 25% + 12.5% = 87.5%.
This is measuring your capabilities of how to use the fraction of fractions.
I wish I can draw on the picture to explain it better.