The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
My Response
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The magazine claims that according to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. Stated in this way the argument fails to mention several key factors, on the basis of which it could be evaluated. The conclusion relies on assumptions, for which there is no clear evidence. Therefore, the argument is rather weak, unconvincing, and has several flaws.
First, the argument fails to mention the proportion of the population, which actually reads the magazine. For example, if the readers are just 1 % of the total population then any conclusion from the results of the survey will be an illusion.
Secondly, the argument does not mentions the details of the survey hence hides the conditions because of which the mentioned 70% readers might have planned to buy or construct a new home. One such condition can be a question mentioned in the survey that if the prices fall then are you planning to buy a new house.
Finally, a big flaw in the argument is an assumption that a new construction is required in order to fulfill the needs of the people who are planning to buy or construct a new house. It is very likely that many of the projects are almost complete and are sufficient to fulfill the needs of the new houses. In such scenario there will be no need for a new construction.
In summary, the argument is flawed and therefore unconvincing. It could be considerably strengthened if the author clearly mentioned all the relevant facts. In order to assess the merits of a certain situation, it is essential to have full knowledge of all contributing factors.
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
My Response
=========================
The magazine claims that according to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. Stated in this way the argument fails to mention several key factors, on the basis of which it could be evaluated. The conclusion relies on assumptions, for which there is no clear evidence. Therefore, the argument is rather weak, unconvincing, and has several flaws.
First, the argument fails to mention the proportion of the population, which actually reads the magazine. For example, if the readers are just 1 % of the total population then any conclusion from the results of the survey will be an illusion.
Secondly, the argument does not mentions the details of the survey hence hides the conditions because of which the mentioned 70% readers might have planned to buy or construct a new home. One such condition can be a question mentioned in the survey that if the prices fall then are you planning to buy a new house.
Finally, a big flaw in the argument is an assumption that a new construction is required in order to fulfill the needs of the people who are planning to buy or construct a new house. It is very likely that many of the projects are almost complete and are sufficient to fulfill the needs of the new houses. In such scenario there will be no need for a new construction.
In summary, the argument is flawed and therefore unconvincing. It could be considerably strengthened if the author clearly mentioned all the relevant facts. In order to assess the merits of a certain situation, it is essential to have full knowledge of all contributing factors.
