probability--phone no

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probability--phone no

by prachich1987 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:28 am
John wrote a phone number on a note that was later lost. John can remember that the number had 7 digits, the digit 1 appeared in the last three places and 0 did not appear at all. What is the probability that the phone number contains at least two prime digits?

a) 15/16
b) 11/16
c) 11/12
d) ½
e) 5/8
Thanks!
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by maihuna » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:51 am
Is there any constraint like no's cannot repeat, w/o that I am getting weird answer , see my attempt below:

Out of 7 no, 1 is in last 3, 0 is not there, so remaining places can be filled with : 1-9 having 2 3 5 7 as prime

w/o any constraint, total combination will be : 9^6

With no Prime : 5^6

With one prime : 4*6*5^5

Total ()&1) : 5^5(25) = 5^7

so prob shud be : (9^6-5^7)/9^6
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by prachich1987 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:54 am
maihuna wrote:Is there any constraint like no's cannot repeat, w/o that I am getting weird answer , see my attempt below:

Out of 7 no, 1 is in last 3, 0 is not there, so remaining places can be filled with : 1-9 having 2 3 5 7 as prime

w/o any constraint, total combination will be : 9^6

With no Prime : 5^6

With one prime : 4*6*5^5

Total ()&1) : 5^5(25) = 5^7

so prob shud be : (9^6-5^7)/9^6
the phone no.contains 7 digits
Out of those 7 digits last three are 1
So we need to find digits of only remaining 4 places
_ _ _ _ 1 1 1

Hope it helps
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by maihuna » Tue Feb 01, 2011 6:03 am
I am still not getting it, are the answer for other 2 correct?
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by prachich1987 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 6:07 am
The OA is B
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by maihuna » Tue Feb 01, 2011 6:18 am
I was talking abt other two Q posted by u on prob
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by GMATGuruNY » Tue Feb 01, 2011 8:23 am
prachich1987 wrote:John wrote a phone number on a note that was later lost. John can remember that the number had 7 digits, the digit 1 appeared in the last three places and 0 did not appear at all. What is the probability that the phone number contains at least two prime digits?

a) 15/16
b) 11/16
c) 11/12
d) ½
e) 5/8
Since 1 is in the last 3 places, we have 7-3 = 4 positions that need to be filled.
Since 1 and 0 cannot be used, we have 8 digits from which to choose: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.
Of these 8 digits, half are prime.
So if p=prime and n=not prime, P(p) = 1/2 and P(n) = 1/2.

Let's determine P(exactly 2 prime):

P(ppnn) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16.

To determine P(exactly 2 prime), we multiply by the number of ways to arrange ppnn:
P(exactly 2 prime) = 1/16 * 4!/(2!*2!) = 6/16.

Now here's a neat trick. Let P(0) = no primes, P(1) = exactly 1 prime, P(2) = exactly 2 primes, etc.

P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 1.

Probabilities are symmetrical:
P(0) = P(4)
P(1) = P(3)

Thus:
P(4) + P(3) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 1.

Subsituting P(2) = 6/16, we get:

P(4) + P(3) + 6/16 + P(3) + P(4) = 1.
P(3) + P(4) = 5/16

Since P(at least 2 primes) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4), we get:
P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 6/16 + 5/16 = 11/16.

The correct answer is B.
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by maihuna » Tue Feb 01, 2011 8:46 am
Guruji, I am not sure the question mentions repeat was not allowed, thats why I clarified Prachi, and seems repeats are allowed or not is not clearly mentioned. Overly confusing.
GMATGuruNY wrote:
prachich1987 wrote:John wrote a phone number on a note that was later lost. John can remember that the number had 7 digits, the digit 1 appeared in the last three places and 0 did not appear at all. What is the probability that the phone number contains at least two prime digits?

a) 15/16
b) 11/16
c) 11/12
d) ½
e) 5/8
Since 1 is in the last 3 places, we have 7-3 = 4 positions that need to be filled.
Since 1 and 0 cannot be used, we have 8 digits from which to choose: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.
Of these 8 digits, half are prime.
So if p=prime and n=not prime, P(p) = 1/2 and P(n) = 1/2.

Let's determine P(exactly 2 prime):

P(ppnn) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16.

To determine P(exactly 2 prime), we multiply by the number of ways to arrange ppnn:
P(exactly 2 prime) = 1/16 * 4!/(2!*2!) = 6/16.

Now here's a neat trick. Let P(0) = no primes, P(1) = exactly 1 prime, P(2) = exactly 2 primes, etc.

P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 1.

Probabilities are symmetrical:
P(0) = P(4)
P(1) = P(3)

Thus:
P(4) + P(3) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 1.

Subsituting P(2) = 6/16, we get:

P(4) + P(3) + 6/16 + P(3) + P(4) = 1.
P(3) + P(4) = 5/16

Since P(at least 2 primes) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4), we get:
P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 6/16 + 5/16 = 11/16.

The correct answer is B.
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by prachich1987 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:33 am
GMATGuruNY wrote: Since 1 is in the last 3 places, we have 7-3 = 4 positions that need to be filled.
Since 1 and 0 cannot be used, we have 8 digits from which to choose: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.
It is not mentioned anywhere that 1 appears only at last three places...
then why we are not considering 1 for the remaining places?
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by GMATGuruNY » Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:43 am
prachich1987 wrote:
GMATGuruNY wrote: Since 1 is in the last 3 places, we have 7-3 = 4 positions that need to be filled.
Since 1 and 0 cannot be used, we have 8 digits from which to choose: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.
It is not mentioned anywhere that 1 appears only at last three places...
then why we are not considering 1 for the remaining places?
The denominators in the answer choices make it clear that 1 cannot be included in the first 4 positions; otherwise, none of answer choices would be correct. The problem should make clear that the digit 1 appears in the last 3 positions and only in those positions.
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by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:25 pm
Here's a thread on the same question - looks like the wording hasn't been fixed in the last two years!

https://www.beatthegmat.com/probability-t17876.html
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by msrrautela » Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:32 am
Great explanations! This question seemed very difficult but now I can make some sense out of it.
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by prachich1987 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 8:07 pm
GMATGuruNY wrote:
Since 1 is in the last 3 places, we have 7-3 = 4 positions that need to be filled.
Since 1 and 0 cannot be used, we have 8 digits from which to choose: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.
Of these 8 digits, half are prime.
So if p=prime and n=not prime, P(p) = 1/2 and P(n) = 1/2.

Let's determine P(exactly 2 prime):

P(ppnn) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16.

To determine P(exactly 2 prime), we multiply by the number of ways to arrange ppnn:
P(exactly 2 prime) = 1/16 * 4!/(2!*2!) = 6/16.
Thanks Mitch for the explanation
But I have a difficulty in understanding the step marked with red.
The number of ways to arrange 4 digits should be 4!
Then why we have multiplied with 4C2 ?
Thanks!
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by GMATGuruNY » Thu Feb 03, 2011 4:21 am
prachich1987 wrote:
GMATGuruNY wrote:
Since 1 is in the last 3 places, we have 7-3 = 4 positions that need to be filled.
Since 1 and 0 cannot be used, we have 8 digits from which to choose: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.
Of these 8 digits, half are prime.
So if p=prime and n=not prime, P(p) = 1/2 and P(n) = 1/2.

Let's determine P(exactly 2 prime):

P(ppnn) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16.

To determine P(exactly 2 prime), we multiply by the number of ways to arrange ppnn:
P(exactly 2 prime) = 1/16 * 4!/(2!*2!) = 6/16.
The correct answer is C.

Thanks Mitch for the explanation
But I have a difficulty in understanding the step marked with red.
The number of ways to arrange 4 digits should be 4!
Then why we have multiplied with 4C2 ?
To determine the probability that an event happens exactly n times:

P(exactly n times) = P(one way) * (total possible ways)

We want to determine P(exactly 2 primes).
P(p) = 1/2
P(n) = 1/2

One way to get a good outcome is to get p on the first 2 picks and n on the last 2 picks:
P(ppnn) = 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16.

But p on the first 2 picks is not the only way to get a good outcome. The result above needs to be multipled by the total possible ways to get exactly 2 primes. Any arrangement of the letters ppnn will yield exactly 2 primes.

The number of ways to arrange 4 distinct elements = 4!. But ppnn are not distinct elements. There are 2 p's and 2 n's. Whenever an element appears more than once in an arrangement, we need to divide by (number of appearances)!. Since there are two p's, we need to divide by 2!. Since there are 2 n's, we need to divide by another 2!.
Thus, the number of ways to arrange ppnn = 4!/2!2! = 6.

Putting it all together, we get:
P(exactly 2 primes) = 1/16 * 6 = 3/8.

Another example:

A bag contains 4 red marbles, 3 yellow marbles, and 2 blue marbles. Six marbles are removed without replacement. What is the probability that exactly 2 of each color are chosen?

P(RRYYBB) = 4/10 * 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 2/6 * 1/5= 1/1050.

Number of ways to arrange RRYYBB = 6!/2!2!2! = 90.

P(exactly 2 of each color) = 1/1050 * 90 = 3/35.

Hope this helps!
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