Probability - 10 marbles

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by renatakater » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:14 pm
I didn't understand why the first girl is 1. In my opinion it should be 1/2, or 5/10.

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:24 pm
renatakater wrote:I didn't understand why the first girl is 1. In my opinion it should be 1/2, or 5/10.
The first girl can choose any color marble. The solution is set up so that it doesn't matter if that first marble black or white.

If it's white, then the remaining girls must select white balls.
If it's black, then the remaining girls must select black balls.

And then the probability follows.

So, if the first girl can choose any marble, P(select any marble)= 1

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by ArunangsuSahu » Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:06 pm
Solution

Black Marble with girls:

5C1/10C1*4C1/9C1*3C1/8C1*2C1/7C1*1C1/6C1

Same for White

so ..2*(5C1/10C1*4C1/9C1*3C1/8C1*2C1/7C1*1C1/6C1) = 1/126

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by Negin » Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:04 am
Brent@GMATPrepNow wrote:
[email protected] wrote:Hi Brent can you please tell me that why did you take "1 and 1 later on in the following equation:

1*(4/9)*(3/8)*(2/7)*(1/6)=1/126

According to me it should be (1/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6)
Please tell me why the 1 in the beginning wherein it should be (1/10) right as the girl will pick any ball initially.
Hi Amit,

You're missing something from my calculations.
It should be 1 x 4/9 x 3/8 x 2/7 x 1/6 x 1

The first 1 is the probability that the 1st girl selects any marble
The probability that she selects any marble is 1. In other words, we can guarantee that she will definitely select any marble.

The last 1 is the probability that the boys get same color marble from remaining marbles.
In our calculations, we are assuming that all of the girls choose the same colored marble. So, once the girls have selected their marbles, the 5 remaining marbles must be the same color.
If the 5 remaining marbles are the same color, the boys are guaranteed to all get the same color.
So, the probability that the boys get same colored marble = 1

I hope that helps.

Cheers,
Brent
Thanks For Brent solution, But we can change the solution a little which might be more clear:

If the first girl choose white marble then the probability of same marble color for all girls is 5/10*4/9*3/8*2/7*1/6
If the first girl choose black marble then the probability of same marble color for all girls is same as above. so
probability of same marble color for all girls=5/10*4/9*3/8*2/7*1/6*2=1/126

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:14 am
Negin wrote:
Brent@GMATPrepNow wrote:
[email protected] wrote:Hi Brent can you please tell me that why did you take "1 and 1 later on in the following equation:

1*(4/9)*(3/8)*(2/7)*(1/6)=1/126

According to me it should be (1/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6)
Please tell me why the 1 in the beginning wherein it should be (1/10) right as the girl will pick any ball initially.
Hi Amit,

You're missing something from my calculations.
It should be 1 x 4/9 x 3/8 x 2/7 x 1/6 x 1

The first 1 is the probability that the 1st girl selects any marble
The probability that she selects any marble is 1. In other words, we can guarantee that she will definitely select any marble.

The last 1 is the probability that the boys get same color marble from remaining marbles.
In our calculations, we are assuming that all of the girls choose the same colored marble. So, once the girls have selected their marbles, the 5 remaining marbles must be the same color.
If the 5 remaining marbles are the same color, the boys are guaranteed to all get the same color.
So, the probability that the boys get same colored marble = 1

I hope that helps.

Cheers,
Brent
Thanks For Brent solution, But we can change the solution a little which might be more clear:

If the first girl choose white marble then the probability of same marble color for all girls is 5/10*4/9*3/8*2/7*1/6
If the first girl choose black marble then the probability of same marble color for all girls is same as above. so
probability of same marble color for all girls=5/10*4/9*3/8*2/7*1/6*2=1/126
That solution works for me (although it does require additional calculations)

Cheers,
Brent
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by gore.rishabh89 » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:42 am
Please review how i tried to solve it. I am a bit confused that whether its correct or not.

The probability that all the 5 girls select same coloured marble = 5C5

No. of ways in which they can pick them = 10C5 (Sample Space)

Probability that each girl has same coloured marble = 5C5 + 5C5 (As they can all be either black or white)

=> (5C5 + 5C5)/10C5 = 1/126.

Is it correct ? Please guide.

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by aratister » Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:55 am
pranilrao wrote:i also got answer as A 1/126, with the following approach.
P(1st girl getting Blue Marble)xP(2nd girl getting Blue Marble)xP(3rd girl getting Blue Marble)xP(4th girl getting Blue Marble)xP(5th girl getting Blue Marble)=5/10x4/9x3/8/x2/7x1/6

the same probability will exist for all the girls to pick up black marbles, so final probability will be
2x(5/10x4/9x3/8/x2/7x1/6)=1/126
This answer makes sense to me. Probability = No of desired outcomes/number of possible outcomes. The explaination given about fits into the formula.

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*Brent - Can you offer any guidance on this? Much appreciate*

Bc, I didnt know the order of picking (whether all girls were picking before the boys, or whether they were picking alternatively etc.) I assumed that they would pick alternatively. So it was not only important that each girl pick the same colored marble, but also that the boys don't pick those marbles on their turn. So to me the probability would go something like this: 1 X P(boy not picking that marble) X P(girl getting that marble)...

The formula would look something like this:

1 X (1-4/9) X (4/8) X (1-3/7) X (3/6) X (1-2/5) X (2/4) X (1-1/3) X (1/2)
1 X (5/9) X (4/8) X (4/7) X (3/6) X (3/5) X (2/4) X (2/3) X (1/2)
5X4!X4! / 9! = 1/126

What do you think?! Long way to solve an easy question :)

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by nischo » Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:02 am
Hi Brent, I have a quick qn here, Where in this solution are we considering the positioning of the girls or the boys, by positioning I mean the order of their picking.

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:14 am
nischo wrote:Hi Brent, I have a quick qn here, Where in this solution are we considering the positioning of the girls or the boys, by positioning I mean the order of their picking.
Good question, nischo.

For this solution, the order of the picking doesn't matter.
I chose to have the girls pick first, but the solution will be the same no matter what order you use.

To illustrate this, consider the following rudimentary question: A box contains a white chip and a black chip. If you and I both select a chip at random, what is the probability that you select the black chip? The probability will be 1/2 regardless of the order in which we select chips.

Cheers,
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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:18 am
kunalmoudgil wrote:*Brent - Can you offer any guidance on this? Much appreciate*

Bc, I didnt know the order of picking (whether all girls were picking before the boys, or whether they were picking alternatively etc.) I assumed that they would pick alternatively. So it was not only important that each girl pick the same colored marble, but also that the boys don't pick those marbles on their turn. So to me the probability would go something like this: 1 X P(boy not picking that marble) X P(girl getting that marble)...

The formula would look something like this:

1 X (1-4/9) X (4/8) X (1-3/7) X (3/6) X (1-2/5) X (2/4) X (1-1/3) X (1/2)
1 X (5/9) X (4/8) X (4/7) X (3/6) X (3/5) X (2/4) X (2/3) X (1/2)
5X4!X4! / 9! = 1/126

What do you think?! Long way to solve an easy question :)
That works perfectly!
Your solution isn't that long, especially once you recognize the pattern:
1 X 5/9 X 4/8 X 4/7 X 3/6 X 3/5 X ...

This result also helps to answer nischo's question (above).

Cheers,
Brent
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by ArunangsuSahu » Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:30 am
Simple Thinking = 5 marbles can be chosen=10C5=252 ways

There are 2 ways where all girls choose all Black or all white

2/252=1/126

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by nischo » Thu Jan 19, 2012 11:39 am
Brent@GMATPrepNow wrote:
nischo wrote:Hi Brent, I have a quick qn here, Where in this solution are we considering the positioning of the girls or the boys, by positioning I mean the order of their picking.
Good question, nischo.

For this solution, the order of the picking doesn't matter.
I chose to have the girls pick first, but the solution will be the same no matter what order you use.

To illustrate this, consider the following rudimentary question: A box contains a white chip and a black chip. If you and I both select a chip at random, what is the probability that you select the black chip? The probability will be 1/2 regardless of the order in which we select chips.

Cheers,
Brent

Thanks for the quick reply.
But the order would matter if the distribution was unequal right. For example if in the same qn there were 6 girls and 4 boys(also 6 white and 6 black balls). I kno it makes the qn whole lot complicated, but I think this would help everyone understand the concept really well.

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:00 pm
nischo wrote:
Brent@GMATPrepNow wrote:
nischo wrote:Hi Brent, I have a quick qn here, Where in this solution are we considering the positioning of the girls or the boys, by positioning I mean the order of their picking.
Good question, nischo.

For this solution, the order of the picking doesn't matter.
I chose to have the girls pick first, but the solution will be the same no matter what order you use.

To illustrate this, consider the following rudimentary question: A box contains a white chip and a black chip. If you and I both select a chip at random, what is the probability that you select the black chip? The probability will be 1/2 regardless of the order in which we select chips.

Cheers,
Brent

Thanks for the quick reply.
But the order would matter if the distribution was unequal right. For example if in the same qn there were 6 girls and 4 boys(also 6 white and 6 black balls). I kno it makes the qn whole lot complicated, but I think this would help everyone understand the concept really well.
If there were 6 girls and 4 boys (and 6 white balls and 4 black balls), and we were trying to find the probability that all of the girls select white balls, then the order still wouldn't matter. We'd get the same probability.

Try it :-)

Cheers,
Brent
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by jayoptimist » Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:46 pm
The 1st marble selected can be white or black.
Say a girl selects white.

Then, 1st Girl = 5/10 (probability of choosing a WHITE marble)
2nd Girl = 4/9 (Depending on which color is choosen by the first one
3rd Girl = 3/8
4th Girl = 2/7
5th Girl = 1/6
Multiplying the probabilities we get 1/252.
But the first girl could have selected black also. Hence there are 2 ways in which
1/252 can occur. Hence 2*(1/252) = 1/126.