Probability - 10 marbles

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by nischo » Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:24 pm
Brent@GMATPrepNow wrote:
nischo wrote:
Brent@GMATPrepNow wrote:
nischo wrote:Hi Brent, I have a quick qn here, Where in this solution are we considering the positioning of the girls or the boys, by positioning I mean the order of their picking.
Good question, nischo.

For this solution, the order of the picking doesn't matter.
I chose to have the girls pick first, but the solution will be the same no matter what order you use.

To illustrate this, consider the following rudimentary question: A box contains a white chip and a black chip. If you and I both select a chip at random, what is the probability that you select the black chip? The probability will be 1/2 regardless of the order in which we select chips.

Cheers,
Brent

Thanks for the quick reply.
But the order would matter if the distribution was unequal right. For example if in the same qn there were 6 girls and 4 boys(also 6 white and 6 black balls). I kno it makes the qn whole lot complicated, but I think this would help everyone understand the concept really well.
If there were 6 girls and 4 boys (and 6 white balls and 4 black balls), and we were trying to find the probability that all of the girls select white balls, then the order still wouldn't matter. We'd get the same probability.

Try it :-)

Cheers,
Brent
:) Thanks a lot Brent, you helped me bust one of the biggest myths that I had regarding such qn types, which always made me solve the qn the way one of the guys in the above post did. Thanks again for the quick reply, appreciate it.

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by nita24 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:41 am
my maths is pretty horrible hence do pardon for the silly ques.
My ques is:
1) Why are we doing multiplication and not addition to calculate the result.
2) why is the probability '1' when the first girl selects a marble and why is not '1/2' ?
720dreaming wrote:I got A, 1/126. Here is my logic.

First girl picks a marble. Prob 1.
Second girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (4/9)
Third girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (3/8)
Fourth girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (2/7)
Fifth girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (1/6)

So....

1*(4/9)*(3/8)*(2/7)*(1/6)=1/126

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:23 am
nita24 wrote:my maths is pretty horrible hence do pardon for the silly ques.
My ques is:
1) Why are we doing multiplication and not addition to calculate the result.
2) why is the probability '1' when the first girl selects a marble and why is not '1/2' ?
1) There are AND probabilities and OR probabilities.
AND --> multiply
OR --> add

In this question, we want We get P(1st girl selects any marble AND 2nd girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl AND 3nd girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl AND 4th girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl AND 5th girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl AND boys get same color ball from remaining balls)

This equals [P(1st girl selects any marble) x P(2nd girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(3nd girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(4th girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(5th girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(boys get same color ball from remaining balls)

This equals: 1 x 4/9 x 3/8 x 2/7 x 1/6 x 1
Which equals: 1/126

2) The first probability involves the 1st girl selecting any marble. So, there are 10 marbles to choose from, and all 10 of them accomplish the goal of selecting any marble.
So, P(1st girl selects any marble) = 10/10 = 1

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Brent
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by hellpgmat » Sat Mar 03, 2012 1:33 am
I am very new to GMAT and probability is very unfriendly to me.
This might be the stupid question but i need to learn it .Hope you expert dont mind.
So how do figure out that the probability is 1 when first girl pick the ball and why not 5/10 ?
Please help me !!

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Sat Mar 03, 2012 7:55 am
hellpgmat wrote:I am very new to GMAT and probability is very unfriendly to me.
This might be the stupid question but i need to learn it .Hope you expert dont mind.
So how do figure out that the probability is 1 when first girl pick the ball and why not 5/10 ?
Please help me !!
That's okay - probability is one of the most difficult topics and this is a very difficult problem.

Our goal is to evaluate the following.

P(1st girl selects any marble) x P(2nd girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(3nd girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(4th girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(5th girl selects marble the same color as 1st girl) x P(boys get same color marble from remaining marbles)

Notice that, for this solution, there is no restriction on the color of the marble the first girl must select. Whatever color marble the first girl selects will be THE color that all of the girls must select.

There are 10 marble altogether, and 10 marbles meet the requirement of being ANY color. So, the probability that the first girl chooses ANY color is 10/10 (1).

Now, if my solution were to have some restriction saying, for example, that the first girl must select a black marble, then the first probability would be 5/10 (since only 5 of the 10 marbles are black).

I hope that helps.

Cheers,
Brent
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by sullykma » Sat Mar 03, 2012 10:49 pm
My answer is A: The possibility of all 5 girls get 5 same colour is 2, bec. there are only 5 W and 5 B balls. all possibility is 10C5=36*7 then 2/36*7=1/126.

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by karthikgmat » Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:53 am
What is the guarantee that Gals should only pick first ?

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Sun Mar 04, 2012 9:29 am
karthikgmat wrote:What is the guarantee that Gals should only pick first ?
Great question. The quick answer is that it doesn't matter who picks first.

In order to solve the question, we need to impose some kind of order regarding who chooses when.
If the boys were to choose first, the answer would remain the same.
If the boys and girls were to alternate, the answer would remain the same.

Here's an analogous example:
There are 2 marbles in a bag - 1 is white and 1 is black.
You and your friend select a marble each, without replacement.
What is the probability that you select the white marble?
Does it make any difference who chooses first? No. The probability will be 1/2

What if there are 3 marbles in a bag - 1 white and 2 black.
You and 2 friends select a marble each, without replacement.
What is the probability that you select the white marble?
Does it make any difference who chooses first? No. The probability will be 1/3

And so on.

I hope that helps.

Cheers,
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by liquid » Fri Mar 30, 2012 9:43 am
Probability girl A gets black marble A ==> 5/10
Probability girl B gets black marble B ==> 4/9 (since only 9 marbles left, and girl A doesn't pick again)
Probability girl C gets black marble C ==> 3/8
Probability girl D gets black marble D ==> 2/7
Probability girl E gets black marble E ==> 1/6

Multiply together to find Probability of all girls choosing black marble:
(5/10)*(4/9)*(3/8)*(2/7)*(1/6) ===> simplify terms ===> (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(2/63) = 2/504 = 1/252

1/252 = probability all girls get black marbles, therefore same as white so 1/252 chances all girls get white as well.

Therefore, probability all girls get same of either black or white = (1/252)*(1/252) ==> 2/252
==>1/126

A

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by ka_t_rin » Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:45 am
Ian Stewart wrote:
bluementor wrote:
720dreaming wrote:I got A, 1/126. Here is my logic.

First girl picks a marble. Prob 1.
Second girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (4/9)
Third girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (3/8)
Fourth girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (2/7)
Fifth girl must pick the same color marble. Prob (1/6)

So....

1*(4/9)*(3/8)*(2/7)*(1/6)=1/126
I don't get it. Why do you assume that all the girls will pick the marbles first before the boys do or vice versa? If the girls and boys picked a marble each in turns, the result would be different.

The probability of a second girl to picking the same color marble can be any of the following:

1. 4/9 : if she is the 2nd person picking a marble
2. 4/8: if she is the 3rd person picking a marble (i.e. the first boy picks before her)
3. 4/7: if 2 boys pick marbles before the 2nd girl
...and so on, and a similar logic for the 3rd, 4th and 5th girl.

Could anyone please explain? Thanks.

-BM-
You're free to assume the boys and girls pick the marbles in any order you find convenient (or if you like, you can assume they all pick marbles simultaneously). Provided you do the math right, the answer will be the same in every case, which should make intuitive sense. If the boys and girls alternate, as in your scenario above, you could calculate the result as follows:

1st (girl): can pick any marble
2nd (boy): must pick the colour the first girl did not pick: 5/9
3rd (girl): must pick same as the first girl: 4/8
4th (boy): must pick same as the first boy: 4/7
5th (girl): must pick same as other girls: 3/6

and so on. Multiplying these, you get:

(5/9)*(4/8)*(4/7)*(3/6)*(3/5)*(2/4)*(2/3)*(1/2)
= (5*4*4*3*3*2*2)/9!
= (4*3*2)/(9*8*7*6)
= 1/(3*7*6)
= 1/126

I'd find this approach a lot less convenient then the approaches suggested above, but there's no reason why it shouldn't give you the same answer.
According to manhattan gmat guide (combinatorics section) you should first solve for the most restricted choices (girls are restricted to choose same colors).

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by somsubhra86 » Mon Apr 23, 2012 11:50 pm
Ans is 1/126

My approach is quite different:--

5c5*5c5+5c5*5c5/10c5--->>2/252--->>1/126

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by KalyanT » Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:27 am
Hi,

I thought of a different approach and got a different answer. Following are the final possible arrangement of the marbles with boys and
Girls :

Boys (white,black). Girls (white,black)

Boys(5,0) : Girls(0,5)
Boys(4,1) : Girls(1,4)
Boys(3,2) : Girls(2,3)
Boys(2,3) : Girls(3,2)
Boys(1,4) : Girls(4,1)
Boys(0,5) : Girls(5,0)

So as per probability : favored outcomes/ total outcomes

= 2/6
= 1/3

Please let me know if I am wrong.

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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:38 am
KalyanT wrote:Hi,

I thought of a different approach and got a different answer. Following are the final possible arrangement of the marbles with boys and
Girls :

Boys (white,black). Girls (white,black)

Boys(5,0) : Girls(0,5)
Boys(4,1) : Girls(1,4)
Boys(3,2) : Girls(2,3)
Boys(2,3) : Girls(3,2)
Boys(1,4) : Girls(4,1)
Boys(0,5) : Girls(5,0)

So as per probability : favored outcomes/ total outcomes

= 2/6
= 1/3

Please let me know if I am wrong.
Unfortunately, this is incorrect.
You are using the basic probability formula: P(A) = (# of outcomes favorable to A)/# total number of outcomes.
We can use this formula only if each outcome occurs with the same likelihood.
The problem is that the 6 outcomes you listed are not equally likely to occur.
For example, the outcome Boys(3,2) : Girls(2,3) is more likely to happen that the outcome Boys(5,0) : Girls(0,5). As such, we can't use the basic formula in this manner.

Cheers,
Brent
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by Brent@GMATPrepNow » Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:47 am
Brent@GMATPrepNow wrote:
KalyanT wrote:Hi,

I thought of a different approach and got a different answer. Following are the final possible arrangement of the marbles with boys and
Girls :

Boys (white,black). Girls (white,black)

Boys(5,0) : Girls(0,5)
Boys(4,1) : Girls(1,4)
Boys(3,2) : Girls(2,3)
Boys(2,3) : Girls(3,2)
Boys(1,4) : Girls(4,1)
Boys(0,5) : Girls(5,0)

So as per probability : favored outcomes/ total outcomes

= 2/6
= 1/3

Please let me know if I am wrong.
Unfortunately, this is incorrect.
You are using the basic probability formula: P(A) = (# of outcomes favorable to A)/# total number of outcomes.
We can use this formula only if each outcome occurs with the same likelihood.
The problem is that the 6 outcomes you listed are not equally likely to occur.
For example, the outcome Boys(3,2) : Girls(2,3) is more likely to happen that the outcome Boys(5,0) : Girls(0,5). As such, we can't use the basic formula in this manner.

Cheers,
Brent
Aside: This idea of equally-likely outcomes reminds of a guy who tried to "prove" to me that the probability of winning the lottery is much better than people are led to believe.

His argument
There are 2 outcomes:
- you win the lottery
- you don't win the lottery

So, P(win lottery) = 1/2

If only it were true! :-)

Cheers,
Brent
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by phoenix9801 » Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:19 am
Nicely put question.

If we use the combination and permutations formula it makes it easier to solve.

C(n,r)= n! / r!(n-r)!

N= 10
R= 5

Hence, 10! / 5! (10-5)! = 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 / 5,4,3,2,1 (5,4,3,2,1)=

Cancel the top portion and bottom that are the same then multiply everything else or reaming = 10,9,8,7 /5,4,1 = 5040 /20 = 252

Hence, only two white or black marbles (2 possible outcomes). 2/252 can be reduce to 1/ 126. Which is Answer A) 1/126