Argument:
The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Analysis:
The author states that a recent survey has indicated that approximately 70% of respondents are planning to build or purchase new homes within the next 2 years. This is the proof for boom in the construction industry in the near future. This will benefit the industry overall. In the preceding statement, the author claims that" Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment". Though this claim may well have merit, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument based on several questionable premises and assumptions and based solely on the evidence the author offers; we cannot accept his argument as valid.
The primary issue with authors reasoning lies in his unsubstantiated premises. The author fails to indicate that the survey of readers include how many people, for example, 70% of respondents indicate that they are planning to build homes over next 2 years but the number of people are not mentioned, they can be 10 readers or 100 readers. Similarly, as the results are not known, for how many readers are there, so the growth of the industry may or may not accelerate. The authors premises, the basis for his argument, lack any legitimate evidentiary support that render his conclusion unacceptable.
In addition, the author makes several assumptions that remain unproven. The author assumes that a survey provides accurate data and since 70% readers indicate to buy homes in the near future, it is assumed by the author that 70% is a large number, but that is not the case as the total number of readers are not mentioned. Also, the assumption that results from the recent survey are proof for the better future of construction industry may not be true. Furthermore, since the information gained by survey may not be true, similarly, the industry may not be good for investment. The author weakens his argument by failing to provide the explication of links between the information from survey and growth of construction industry he assumes exists.
While the author does have some hey issue's with his premises and assumptions, that is not to say that the entire argument is without base. the author can provide more examples to support his argument, he can state the number of readers of The Homebuilder magazine, so the information can be proved regarding the growth of construction industry, for instance, if there are 10,000 readers also considering the total number of population close to this number than the authors argument is strengthened as he can defenately say that the future of construction industry is good and it will offer lucrative opportunities for investment. Though there are several issue's with authors reasoning at present with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.
In sum, the authors illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render is conclusion invalid. The author has to support his argument by providing more examples as to how many people are taking the survey and if the information provided by the survey is reliable and whether the construction industry will grow not only because of a survey but also because of other factors and the author should also provide reasons as to why this industry will be good for investment. If the author truly hopes to change his readers mind on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assmption, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.
The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Analysis:
The author states that a recent survey has indicated that approximately 70% of respondents are planning to build or purchase new homes within the next 2 years. This is the proof for boom in the construction industry in the near future. This will benefit the industry overall. In the preceding statement, the author claims that" Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment". Though this claim may well have merit, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument based on several questionable premises and assumptions and based solely on the evidence the author offers; we cannot accept his argument as valid.
The primary issue with authors reasoning lies in his unsubstantiated premises. The author fails to indicate that the survey of readers include how many people, for example, 70% of respondents indicate that they are planning to build homes over next 2 years but the number of people are not mentioned, they can be 10 readers or 100 readers. Similarly, as the results are not known, for how many readers are there, so the growth of the industry may or may not accelerate. The authors premises, the basis for his argument, lack any legitimate evidentiary support that render his conclusion unacceptable.
In addition, the author makes several assumptions that remain unproven. The author assumes that a survey provides accurate data and since 70% readers indicate to buy homes in the near future, it is assumed by the author that 70% is a large number, but that is not the case as the total number of readers are not mentioned. Also, the assumption that results from the recent survey are proof for the better future of construction industry may not be true. Furthermore, since the information gained by survey may not be true, similarly, the industry may not be good for investment. The author weakens his argument by failing to provide the explication of links between the information from survey and growth of construction industry he assumes exists.
While the author does have some hey issue's with his premises and assumptions, that is not to say that the entire argument is without base. the author can provide more examples to support his argument, he can state the number of readers of The Homebuilder magazine, so the information can be proved regarding the growth of construction industry, for instance, if there are 10,000 readers also considering the total number of population close to this number than the authors argument is strengthened as he can defenately say that the future of construction industry is good and it will offer lucrative opportunities for investment. Though there are several issue's with authors reasoning at present with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.
In sum, the authors illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render is conclusion invalid. The author has to support his argument by providing more examples as to how many people are taking the survey and if the information provided by the survey is reliable and whether the construction industry will grow not only because of a survey but also because of other factors and the author should also provide reasons as to why this industry will be good for investment. If the author truly hopes to change his readers mind on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assmption, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.
