The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine:

"On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer."

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion

Response :

The department stores expect its sales to increase in the next decade based on the prediction that the number of middle aged customers will significantly increase. As an added strategy to attract more middle aged customers, the department store also proposes to replace the items which attract young consumers by items which attract middle aged customers. The main conclusion is purely based on the prediction that the middle aged consumer volume next decade will continue to spend the same percentage of their retail expenditure in department stores. The argument is unconvincing because it ignores a couple of factors which may play a role in the increase of department store sales in the next decade.

First, the argument assumes that the middle aged consumers of the next decade will continue to exhibit the current retail expenditure trend. A percentage of consumers who are currently young will be part of the next decade's middle aged customer pool. It is necessary to establish that the current young consumer will change their retail expenditure on departmental stores when they become middle aged. A survey to establish the future spending patterns of current young consumers who will become middle aged in the next decade will help in establishing whether the middle aged population increase next decade will really result in increased sales for the departmental stores


Second, the reason that the middle aged consumers currently devote 39% of their retail expenditure to department store products and services is because of the store's attractiveness or appeal to its consumers. Today's young consumers are tomorrow's middle aged consumers. If the departmental store products and services do not appeal to the current young customers, there could be a good possibility that the newly turned middle aged consumers might refrain from shopping at the departmental stores. So, it is necessary to determine what percentage of young consumers will become middle aged consumers next decade and then evaluate the rationale behind replacement of products which attract young consumers in departmental stores

So, it is very important to establish more facts before reaching the conclusion that sales from middle aged consumers will rise in the next decade and before taking actions which will ignore the current young consumers and focus totally on the current middle aged consumers