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Meterologists' mathematical model..

Expert replies
by lokesh r » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:36 am
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, could be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologist's claim cannot be evaluated?

A)Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanism are not understood.
B)Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of the weather forecasts.
C)Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastropic events as volcanic eruptions are beginnning to be constucted.
D)Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
E)Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

I am not even able to understand premise here..can someone explain what author is actually trying tell..?

OA later..
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Source: — Critical Reasoning |

by Dangerous Dude » Wed Oct 20, 2010 12:53 pm
Go with A..

Metrologists say: accurate methematical model required to solve all complexities, in order to get clear prediction

Author says: Its boasting by metrologists, As they blame every failure on imperfection on machine.

Question asks to argue against author...

A... There are certain unusual configuration of data, i.e complexities, if used could result in accurate prediction... Making metrologists correct and author wrong

B,C,D,E... Dosn't suit as they are specific to one case or other...
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by lokesh r » Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:00 pm
Dangerous Dude wrote:Go with A..

Metrologists say: accurate methematical model required to solve all complexities, in order to get clear prediction

Author says: Its boasting by metrologists, As they blame every failure on imperfection on machine.

Question asks to argue against author...

A... There are certain unusual configuration of data, i.e complexities, if used could result in accurate prediction... Making metrologists correct and author wrong

B,C,D,E... Dosn't suit as they are specific to one case or other...
Sorry Dude..you are wrong..your answer does not match OA..
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by rooster » Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:20 pm
lokesh r wrote:Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, could be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologist's claim cannot be evaluated?

A)Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanism are not understood.
B)Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of the weather forecasts.
C)Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastropic events as volcanic eruptions are beginnning to be constucted.
D)Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
E)Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

I am not even able to understand premise here..can someone explain what author is actually trying tell..?

OA later..
I'd say B.

Meteorologists say that accurate math models of the atmospheres = precision in forecast. The author believes this is not true. In this question we need to prove the author wrong. The one that makes sense is B as significant gains in math models seems to be connected with more precise forecasts.
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by vishalj » Wed Oct 20, 2010 8:01 pm
In the first statement, the author is stating meteorologist's claim ( or prediction). In the second stmt, the author is deriving a conclusion and providing a reasoning. The meorologist's claim is that they could forecast the weather with precision if they could design an accurate mathematical model. The author conclusion is that there is no way to evaluate this claim. The reason being, the imperfection exists no matter what.

This is good question. You can weaken this question ( or any weaken question of this nature by two ways)

1. Find the author's "reasoning error" and then find the answer that supports the reasoning error. Here the reasoning error is with the imperfection that will always exist.

2. Another way to weaken is to strengthen meteorologist's claim. You need to prove that what meteorologist is saying is achievable.

Choice B fits the bill here. B is saying that as the accuracy of the mathematical models improves, the precision of the weather forecasts improves.
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by Dangerous Dude » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:59 pm
Yeah in the begining I was on A and B....

But A sounded better to me in evaluating metrologists claim.....
B Definately negates author's conclusion....but the usage of "most" making it all but none... Made me to think it like a contender than a correct option.

How you would evade A??
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by rooster » Wed Oct 20, 2010 10:09 pm
Dangerous Dude wrote:Yeah in the begining I was on A and B....

But A sounded better to me in evaluating metrologists claim.....
B Definately negates author's conclusion....but the usage of "most" making it all but none... Made me to think it like a contender than a correct option.

How you would evade A??
Basically the author is saying the math model does not work, by picking A it reinforces that the math model does not work, it's by some other means that cannot be explained. The right answer would go against it.
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by aspirant_mumbai » Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:36 am
Whats the OA?
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by saurabhmahajan » Tue Oct 26, 2010 3:16 am
IMO : E
Thanks and regards,
Saurabh Mahajan

I can understand you not winning,but i will not forgive you for not trying.
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by lokesh r » Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:57 am
OA B.
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