Questions 12-13 are based on the following
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the
atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision.
But this is an idle boast; immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast
would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
12) Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the
author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?
A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise
weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not
understood.
B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are
accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic
events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct
about 80 percent of the time.
E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are
talking about is not now in their power to construct.
13) Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the
meteorologists' boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?
A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored
closely and is known not to be constant.
B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes
that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a
significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in
complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for
the representation of the models.
D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number
of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction
of a good model of the atmosphere.
E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large-scale weather patterns can be
predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the
atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision.
But this is an idle boast; immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast
would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
12) Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the
author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?
A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise
weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not
understood.
B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are
accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic
events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct
about 80 percent of the time.
E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are
talking about is not now in their power to construct.
13) Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the
meteorologists' boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?
A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored
closely and is known not to be constant.
B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes
that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a
significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in
complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for
the representation of the models.
D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number
of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction
of a good model of the atmosphere.
E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large-scale weather patterns can be
predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.
