Needgmat wrote:In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oi. Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating system from oil to natural gas. Malveria currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace. If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.

which of the following would it be most useful to establish in evaluating the argument?

A) When, if ever, will production of oil in Malvernia outstrip production of natural gas?

B) Is Malvernia among the countries that rely most on imported oil?

C) what proportion of Malvernia's total energy needs is met by hydroelectric, solar, and nuclear power?

D) Is the amount of oil used each year in Malvernia for generating electricity and fuel for transportation increasing?

E) Have any existing oil-burning heating system in Malvernia already been converted to natural-gas burning heating system?

OAD

Hi Experts ,

Can you please explain by YES or NO approach?

Many thanks in advance.

Kavin

The conclusion: If current trends continue Malvernia's reliance on foreign oil is likely to decrease.

Premises: Malvernia has a program to switch heating systems from oil to gas. Oil production is increasing. They have more gas than they need.

Well, if they're producing more oil domestically, and the heating systems are being switched from oil to gas, the only way the country wouldn't decrease its reliance on foreign oil would be if demand for oil were increasing in domestic realms we haven't considered. So that's what we're looking for.

A) Irrelevant. Domestic oil production is up. That's a fact. Reliance on foreign oil will depend on demand.
B) Irrelevant. We don't care about where Malvernia ranks internationally.
C) Tempting, but no. Even if hydro, solar, and nuclear account for 95% of the energy needs in the country, we don't know if demand for oil has increased in areas we haven't considered.
D) Ask yourself: if the answer is YES, oil demand is up and Malvernia may need to import more foreign oil. If the answer is NO, there's no reason to believe that they'd need to import. Looks good.
E) Irrelevant. We're told the conversion is happening - the timing of this conversion doesn't matter.

Answer is D

Hi DavidG ,

Thank you so much for your explanation. All clear.

Thanks,

Kavin

DavidG@VeritasPrep wrote:
The conclusion: If current trends continue Malvernia's reliance on foreign oil is likely to decrease.

Premises: Malvernia has a program to switch heating systems from oil to gas. Oil production is increasing. They have more gas than they need.

Well, if they're producing more oil domestically, and the heating systems are being switched from oil to gas, the only way the country wouldn't decrease its reliance on foreign oil would be if demand for oil were increasing in domestic realms we haven't considered. So that's what we're looking for.


C) Tempting, but no. Even if hydro, solar, and nuclear account for 95% of the energy needs in the country, we don't know if demand for oil has increased in areas we haven't considered.
D) Ask yourself: if the answer is YES, oil demand is up and Malvernia may need to import more foreign oil. If the answer is NO, there's no reason to believe that they'd need to import. Looks good.

I was stuck between C and D.
If the consumption of oil increases, doesn't this contradict the premise "If these trends in fuel production and usage continue".

So, I felt that any spike or dip in Oil wouldn't affect the oil imports.