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In a recent poll

Expert replies
by kullayappayenugula » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:52 pm
In a recent poll, 71% of respondents reported that they cast votes in the
most recent national election. Voting records show, however, that only 60%
of eligible voters actually voted in that election.
Which of the following pieces of evidence, if true, would provide the best
explanation for the discrepancy?

(A) The margin of error for the survey was plus or minus five percentage
points.
(B) Fifteen percent of the survey's respondents were living overseas at the
time of the election.
(C) Prior research has shown that people who actually do vote are also more
likely to respond to polls than those who do not vote.
(D) Some people who intend to vote are prevented from doing so by lastminute
conflicts on election day or other complications.
(E) Polls about voting behavior typically have margins of error within plus or
minus three percentage points.

OA C

Can someone please explain each answer choice?
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Source: — Critical Reasoning |

by anuprajan5 » Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:18 pm
This is a statistical argument. In every statistical argument, it might be worthwhile to identify the bodies being compared.

In the argument, it says 71% of the respondents reported that they cast votes and that 60% of eligible voters actually voted.

It can be seen that the bodies are different where the respondents are only a subset of the eligible voters. Before looking at the options we can conclude that we need to look at an option that bridges the gap created by these 2 bodies.

(A) The margin of error for the survey was plus or minus five percentage
points. - Irrelevant
(B) Fifteen percent of the survey's respondents were living overseas at the
time of the election. - Does not bridge the gap. Does not tell us if they even voted.
(C) Prior research has shown that people who actually do vote are also more
likely to respond to polls than those who do not vote. - This explains the gap.
(D) Some people who intend to vote are prevented from doing so by lastminute
conflicts on election day or other complications. - Irrelevant. Nothing to do with poll respondents
(E) Polls about voting behavior typically have margins of error within plus or
minus three percentage points. Irrelevant. Nothing to do with poll respondents


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