The following appeared as part of a campaign statement for Velazquez, who is seeking election as alderman in the town of Barchester:
"Under Police Commissioner Draco, the city of Spartanburg began jailing people for committing petty crimes such as littering, shoplifting, and spraying graffiti. Criminals in Spartanburg must have understood that lawlessness would no longer be tolerated, because the following year Spartanburg saw a 20% drop in violent crimes such as homicide. Our town should learn from Commissioner Draco's success, and begin a large-scale crackdown on petty crime."
On the surface, the conclusions drawn above about Police commissioner Draco seem straightforward but a closer look of the premises shows that the conclusion is not only unpersuasive but also very weak.
The campaign statement unconvincingly relates the actions of Police Commission Draco to 20% drop in violent crimes such as homicides. It is a highly extrapolated judgment. It is possible that some other causes might have triggered the reduction in the homicide rate. Those causes might include the ban on weapons in the whole state or the FBI arrest of some gang-members that were primarily responsible for the majority of homicides in the past. The author must show evidence that none of these causes resulted in the decreased rate of homicides.
Secondly, 20% drop in homicides is impressive in itself but it is possible that the percentage of other crimes could've increased. It is possible that robbery, kidnapping and money fraud incidents rose during Draco's tenure. The statement of campaign should reveal the details about the total number of crimes that took place under Police Commissioner Draco. The details should also include the distribution of various crimes, the number of casualties etc.
Finally, the campaign statement is drawing a flawed conclusion that Draco is a successful commissioner and suggests that a large-scale crackdown on petty crimes should be mandated. It would be important to look at what happened in the past when the successful police commissioner regimes were followed by increased crimes. That study would be a good indicator of the necessary steps needed to sustain lowered homicide rates.
In summary, the campaign statement draws flawed conclusion from very weakly linked premises. The supporting information about key questions raised in the discussion will be helpful in strengthening the argument.
"Under Police Commissioner Draco, the city of Spartanburg began jailing people for committing petty crimes such as littering, shoplifting, and spraying graffiti. Criminals in Spartanburg must have understood that lawlessness would no longer be tolerated, because the following year Spartanburg saw a 20% drop in violent crimes such as homicide. Our town should learn from Commissioner Draco's success, and begin a large-scale crackdown on petty crime."
On the surface, the conclusions drawn above about Police commissioner Draco seem straightforward but a closer look of the premises shows that the conclusion is not only unpersuasive but also very weak.
The campaign statement unconvincingly relates the actions of Police Commission Draco to 20% drop in violent crimes such as homicides. It is a highly extrapolated judgment. It is possible that some other causes might have triggered the reduction in the homicide rate. Those causes might include the ban on weapons in the whole state or the FBI arrest of some gang-members that were primarily responsible for the majority of homicides in the past. The author must show evidence that none of these causes resulted in the decreased rate of homicides.
Secondly, 20% drop in homicides is impressive in itself but it is possible that the percentage of other crimes could've increased. It is possible that robbery, kidnapping and money fraud incidents rose during Draco's tenure. The statement of campaign should reveal the details about the total number of crimes that took place under Police Commissioner Draco. The details should also include the distribution of various crimes, the number of casualties etc.
Finally, the campaign statement is drawing a flawed conclusion that Draco is a successful commissioner and suggests that a large-scale crackdown on petty crimes should be mandated. It would be important to look at what happened in the past when the successful police commissioner regimes were followed by increased crimes. That study would be a good indicator of the necessary steps needed to sustain lowered homicide rates.
In summary, the campaign statement draws flawed conclusion from very weakly linked premises. The supporting information about key questions raised in the discussion will be helpful in strengthening the argument.
