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by prachich1987 » Thu Dec 30, 2010 6:32 am
Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled areas of the world as it is in those already sampled, our current estimate of reserves that exist underground must be multiplied by a factor of 10,000. From this we can conclude that we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate.

To reach the stated conclusion, the author must assume which of the following?

(A) It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world
(B) The consumption rate for oil will not grow rapidly
(C) Oil will remain an important energy source for at least 500 years
(D) The world will achieve and maintain zero population growth
(E) New technology will make oil discovery and drilling more feasible than ever before
Source: — Critical Reasoning |

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by anshumishra » Thu Dec 30, 2010 6:52 am
prachich1987 wrote:Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled areas of the world as it is in those already sampled, our current estimate of reserves that exist underground must be multiplied by a factor of 10,000. From this we can conclude that we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate.

To reach the stated conclusion, the author must assume which of the following?

(A) It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world
(B) The consumption rate for oil will not grow rapidly
(C) Oil will remain an important energy source for at least 500 years
(D) The world will achieve and maintain zero population growth
(E) New technology will make oil discovery and drilling more feasible than ever before
I think A should be the answer.

Conclusion -> we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate.

Premise -> Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled areas of the world as it is in those already sampled, our current estimate of reserves that exist underground must be multiplied by a factor of 10,000.

"A" makes sure that the oil contained in unexplored areas is recoverable.
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by Tani » Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:23 pm
Try the denial test here. If we change answer A to say that the oil in unexplored regions CANNOT be recovered, then the argument fails.
Tani Wolff

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by bblast » Mon Jan 03, 2011 12:26 pm
its A prachi


(A) It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world
thus the oil deposits talked abt will suffice the req's of comin centuries.

the other tempting options are :

(B) The consumption rate for oil will not grow rapidly-> this has already been stated explicitly

(C) Oil will remain an important energy source for at least 500 years ->who cares, we might even feel like drinking some of it as far as it is available in abundance :).
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by arora007 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:42 pm
Tani Wolff - Kaplan wrote:Try the denial test here. If we change answer A to say that the oil in unexplored regions CANNOT be recovered, then the argument fails.
I guess prachich1987... if you have posted this, because you got it wrong...you might have chosen E.

Although its okay to choose A on basis of premise and conclusion... "the denial test" as told by Tani Wolff is the correct approach for assumptions questions... Do read Ch 8 of CR bible if possible: as the bible says "For many students, Assumption questions are the most difficult type of CR problems."
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by prachich1987 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:20 pm
Thanks everyone.
The OA is A