It is not unusual to see the ball fall into a black slot on a roulette wheel four times in a row. But for it to fall five or six times in a row into the same color is very unusual. Therefore you can win money by waiting for a run of five of the same color and then betting against that color.
If the roulette wheel in question is a fair wheel, which of the following observations or facts, if it were true, would best reveal a fallacy in the logic?
A. If there were a reliable way to win at roulette it would be well-known by now.
B. It is hard for a player to keep track of what went before for the time required.
C. The probability of getting a particular color decreases with the number of times the color has appeared.
D. The probability of getting a particular color is always the same no matter what has gone before.
E. A person who makes money this way once or twice, will carry on to lose that money after a few more times.
If the roulette wheel in question is a fair wheel, which of the following observations or facts, if it were true, would best reveal a fallacy in the logic?
A. If there were a reliable way to win at roulette it would be well-known by now.
B. It is hard for a player to keep track of what went before for the time required.
C. The probability of getting a particular color decreases with the number of times the color has appeared.
D. The probability of getting a particular color is always the same no matter what has gone before.
E. A person who makes money this way once or twice, will carry on to lose that money after a few more times.
