ESSAY QUESTION:
"In making a complex decision, one should trust experience more than instinct."
Discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the position stated above. Support your viewpoint using reasons and examples from your own experience, observations, or reading.
"There is no replacement for experience in life" a famous quote I always remember and strongly believe in that experience plays a very vital role specially in the matters that involve complex issues at hand, it doesn't mean to completely avoid instincts and they should be also be given its due consideration.
We saw something similar in the financial markets where instincts took over experience and caused a crisis in the financial sector. Based upon the instincts of some 300 odd employees of AIG, huge sums of money were invested in the Credit Default Swaps, these derivatives were new in the financial sector and because of the lucrative returns investment was done in them instinctively without understanding the market dynamics and the affect it will have. It resulted in the biggest quarterly loss for a company of over 60 Billion dollars in US history.
Something similar happened in the dot com crisis of early 21st century, at that time dot com companies were a rage and every company wanted a piece of the dot com slice, at that time unheard amount of money was invested without even considering the revenue potential of these companies. Several millions of dollars were spent just to get the right website name. Some of the companies were eventually sold at a price that was less than 10% of its initial value.
But then again there were instances in our history where experience took over instinct and caused problems, a famous example is the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, in which India placed some 120 soldiers at the Longewalla post that was based on its experience of the 1965 war, however this time the Pakistani forces attacked this post with over 2000 soldiers and 65 tanks. Had the Indian Army listened to the then Major of that battalion, it would not have had to face the dire circumstances at that time.
In the end I would again reiterate that experience is very vital for complex decision making and should be given utmost importance, but we should not completely ignore the instincts, because sometimes they can prove to be equally important.
"In making a complex decision, one should trust experience more than instinct."
Discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the position stated above. Support your viewpoint using reasons and examples from your own experience, observations, or reading.
"There is no replacement for experience in life" a famous quote I always remember and strongly believe in that experience plays a very vital role specially in the matters that involve complex issues at hand, it doesn't mean to completely avoid instincts and they should be also be given its due consideration.
We saw something similar in the financial markets where instincts took over experience and caused a crisis in the financial sector. Based upon the instincts of some 300 odd employees of AIG, huge sums of money were invested in the Credit Default Swaps, these derivatives were new in the financial sector and because of the lucrative returns investment was done in them instinctively without understanding the market dynamics and the affect it will have. It resulted in the biggest quarterly loss for a company of over 60 Billion dollars in US history.
Something similar happened in the dot com crisis of early 21st century, at that time dot com companies were a rage and every company wanted a piece of the dot com slice, at that time unheard amount of money was invested without even considering the revenue potential of these companies. Several millions of dollars were spent just to get the right website name. Some of the companies were eventually sold at a price that was less than 10% of its initial value.
But then again there were instances in our history where experience took over instinct and caused problems, a famous example is the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, in which India placed some 120 soldiers at the Longewalla post that was based on its experience of the 1965 war, however this time the Pakistani forces attacked this post with over 2000 soldiers and 65 tanks. Had the Indian Army listened to the then Major of that battalion, it would not have had to face the dire circumstances at that time.
In the end I would again reiterate that experience is very vital for complex decision making and should be given utmost importance, but we should not completely ignore the instincts, because sometimes they can prove to be equally important.
