"Last summer saw a 500% increase in tourism at the seaside resort,and the national economic situation is even more favorable this year. This summers tourist boom will surely generate record revenues which will resolve our area's economic difficulties."


Explain how logically persuasive you find this argument. In discussing your viewpoint, analyse the arguments line of reasoning and its use of evidence. Also explain what, if anything, would make the argument more valid and convincing or help you to better evaluate its conclusion.

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Based on last year's data and current national economic conditions author has concluded that this summer's tourist boom will generate record revenues which will resolve his area's economic difficulty. At first this argument sounds convincing but by giving a closer look one will find that this argument has numerous flaws and is not at all persuasive.

Firstly author's claim is based on 500% increase in tourism which was seen last year. By looking at figures of just one year one cannot predict about the future. One need to look at the figures of earlier years. It may be possible that last to last year tourist inflow was very low which when used as a base is currently showing 500% growth. If this is true then the number of tourists that came last year was just normal.

Secondly author is assuming that the national economic situation which is more favorable this year will definitely cause the tourist boom but gives no data about the palces from where the tourists are coming to his area. If proportion of foreign tourists is farely large as compared to tourists from other parts of the country then favorable economic condition of the country is not going to effect the numbers of tourists much. In fact if world economic conditions are not favorable the numbers could drop.

Author can make his argument more convincing by adding details such as tourist inflow in last 4-5 years in place of stating growth rate of just one year. Breakup of the places from where the tourists are coming will definitely have a positive impact on the argument.

To conclude I would say this argument is full of flaws and as such it is not at all convincing. To make this argument logically persuasive author should include more details which will support his conclusion and convince the reader of the argument to a large extent.