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It can safely be inferred that there are at least as many

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by AAPL » Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:20 am
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It can safely be inferred that there are at least as many trees in Ithaca as there are in Tompkins. More trees were planted in Ithaca in the past two years than in Tompkins.

For which one of the following does the conclusion logically follow?

A. More trees were planted in Ithaca in the past two years than in Tompkins.
B. Ithaca is the region within which Tompkins is located.
C. Tompkins is suffering from an epidemic of tree-virus infection.
D. The average annual rainfall for Ithaca is greater than the average annual rainfall for Tompkins.
E. The average number of trees cut down annually in Tompkins is higher than in Ithaca.

OA B
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Source: — Critical Reasoning |

What we see: a which-fact-makes-it-certain question. The conclusion is "there are at least as many trees in Ithaca as there are in Tompkins." We need the choice that makes that conclusion follow for sure. (The line after the conclusion just repeats choice A.)

Step 1. See what "at least as many" demands.
What we see: the conclusion is about total trees right now, and it must be safe to infer, so it has to hold in every case.
What it means: facts about planting, rain or sickness only push the numbers one way. Ithaca could still start far behind. We need a fact that ties the totals together.

Step 2. Find the one choice that locks the totals.
What we see: one choice says Ithaca is the region that Tompkins sits inside.
What it means: then every tree in Tompkins is also a tree in Ithaca. Ithaca holds all of Tompkins's trees plus any others in the rest of Ithaca. Its count can never be smaller. The conclusion now follows with no gaps.

Step 3. Check the others.
(A) More trees were planted in Ithaca in the past two years. Tompkins could have started with ten times as many, so the totals are still unknown.
(C) A tree virus in Tompkins might lower its count, but we do not know by how much or where it started.
(D) More rain in Ithaca does not count trees.
(E) More trees cut down each year in Tompkins pushes the right way, but Tompkins could still have far more to begin with.

The trap: (A) and (E). Both nudge Ithaca ahead, but "safely inferred" needs a fact that works in every case, not a fact that only tips the odds.
Takeaway: when a conclusion says "at least as many," look for a part-of-a-whole fact. A place always has at least as many of anything as a place inside it.

Answer: B
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