Each year

[madhur_ahuja]

Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the Grand Banks is announced. This estimate is obtained by averaging two separate estimates of how many cod are available, one based on the number of cod caught by research vessels during a once-yearly sampling of the area and the other on the average number of tons of cod caught by various commercial vessels per unit of fishing effort expended there in the past year—a unit of fishing effort being one kilometer of net set out in the water for one hour. In previous decades, the two estimates usually agreed closely. However, for the last decade the estimate based on commercial tonnage has been increasing markedly, by about the same amount as the sampling-based estimate has been decreasing.

If the statements in the passage are true, which one of the following is most strongly supported by them?

(A) Last year’s official estimate was probably not much different from the official estimate ten years ago.

(B) The number of commercial vessels fishing for cod in the Grand Banks has increased substantially over the past decade.

(C) The sampling-based estimate is more accurate than the estimate based on commercial tonnage in that the data on which it relies is less likely to be inaccurate.

(D) The once-yearly sampling by research vessels should be used as the sole basis for arriving at the official estimate of the stock of cod.

(E) Twenty years ago, the overall stock of cod in the Grand Banks was officially estimated to be much larger than it is estimated to be today

[ankit1383]

IMO....A
It took me 4 minutes......

Lets take an example last decade official estimate was 100(assuming that 100 is both for sampling and commercial method,so average is 100)

this year commercial method is 120
so sampling method will be 100-20=80 since question says increase in commercial is same as decrease in sampling method....
Due to this their average remains the same...as for past decade which is same as option A

Hope i am not missing something here

[Svedankae]

tough one... but i would have picked A as well..

[madhur_ahuja]

IMO....A
It took me 4 minutes......

Lets take an example last decade official estimate was 100(assuming that 100 is both for sampling and commercial method,so average is 100)

this year commercial method is 120
so sampling method will be 100-20=80 since question says increase in commercial is same as decrease in sampling method....
Due to this their average remains the same...as for past decade which is same as option A

Hope i am not missing something here

Nicely explained. OA is A

[DanaJ]

OMG I can't believe it: I misread A (instead of "official" I understood the "research vessel" measurement) and was about to write like a ton of explanations as to why there's no correct answer...

But anyway, it's A and the reason for that is highlighted:

Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the Grand Banks is announced. This estimate is obtained by averaging two separate estimates of how many cod are available, one based on the number of cod caught by research vessels during a once-yearly sampling of the area and the other on the average number of tons of cod caught by various commercial vessels per unit of fishing effort expended there in the past year—a unit of fishing effort being one kilometer of net set out in the water for one hour. In previous decades, the two estimates usually agreed closely. However, for the last decade the estimate based on commercial tonnage has been increasing markedly, by about the same amount as the sampling-based estimate has been decreasing.

It's an average of two separate things, of which one is declining by the same amount as the other is increasing.

[joseph32]

Answer A seems to be logical one out of other answer choices