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Corn harvest during a drought

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Corn harvest during a drought

by pareekbharat86 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:57 pm
The drought in the central part of the country is estimated to reduce this year's national corn harvest by more than one-third from its normal levels. Such a shortfall would subsequently increase meat and other food prices by about 17% in one year and 20% in two years. So, either we spend a small amount now to irrigate the largest affected corn fields and avert severe inflation later, or else fail to irrigate now and ensure inflation later.

The argument is valid only if

a. other American agricultural areas are also not expected to meet their anticipated corn yields this year
b. irrigation is the only way that the national corn yield can be significantly increased
c. the heat wave and drought will persist through the next two years
d. irrigation will ensure that corn harvests reach normal levels
e. it is politically feasible for government authorities to spend money irrigating fields at the present time

OA is B. Why not D
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Bharat.
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by Abhishek009 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:07 pm
pareekbharat86 wrote:The drought in the central part of the country is estimated to reduce this year's national corn harvest by more than one-third from its normal levels. Such a shortfall would subsequently increase meat and other food prices by about 17% in one year and 20% in two years. So, either we spend a small amount now to irrigate the largest affected corn fields and avert severe inflation later, or else fail to irrigate now and ensure inflation later.

Corn harvest is estimated to be reduced by 33% due to drought.

Subsequent rise in Food Prices by 17% during the first Year and 20% during the second year.



Inflation can be prevented if investments are made to irrigate the largest affected corn fields.


The argument is valid only if -

a. other American agricultural areas are also not expected to meet their anticipated corn yields this year

The passage talks about - " The drought in the central part of the country ...."

b. irrigation is the only way that the national corn yield can be significantly increased

True , the passage tells us - " So, either we spend a small amount now to irrigate the largest affected corn fields ...."

c. the heat wave and drought will persist through the next two years

The passage doesn't mention the same

" Such a shortfall would subsequently increase meat and other food prices....by about 17% in one year and 20% in two years."

The passage mentions that drought will ultimately lead to inflation in the economy which will increase year after year.

d. irrigation will ensure that corn harvests reach normal levels

The passage mentions irrigation to avert the situation but " Normal Levels " is not talked about the the situation calls for averting the issue at hand.

" So, either we spend a small amount now to irrigate the largest affected corn fields and avert severe inflation later...."

It can be such that after irrigation investments , production was 95% of the Normal Levels and Consumers are willing to Purchase it at 5% inflated Price , this averting the high Inflation condition...

e. it is politically feasible for government authorities to spend money irrigating fields at the present time

Out of scope , the author mentions the same assuming that the Government can spend some money ...
Abhishek
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by [email protected] » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:08 am
Hi Bharat,

This CR has 2 answers that appear similar, but you can find the correct answer if you pay attention to the details (especially what you KNOW vs. what you DON'T KNOW).

The facts:
-The drought is estimated to reduce the corn harvest by more than 1/3 from its NORMAL LEVELS. What is a "normal level" though? Does that mean "enough corn"?
-The corn shortfall will cause meat and other food prices to go up.

The conclusion:
-We need to spend an amount now to irrigate the largest corn fields and avert later inflation.

The Logic:
There's CLEARLY not going to be enough corn, but was there going to be enough corn BEFORE the drought (when levels were normal)? We don't know. We just know that we need more corn to avert the inflation. Whether levels return to "normal" or "above normal" is not a factor in the logic. Answer B fits.

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