Probability Encore

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Probability Encore

by dtweah » Tue May 19, 2009 4:27 pm
Katie has a collection of red marbles and blue marbles. The number
of red marbles is either 7, 9, 11, 13, or 15. If two marbles are chosen
simultaneously and at random from her collection, then the probability
they have different colors is 0.5. How many red marbles are in Katie’s
collection?

(a) 7
(b) 9
c) 11
(d) 13
(e) 15
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by francopiccolo » Tue May 19, 2009 6:10 pm
Do you have a solution for this one? I can't think of any answers.

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by PAB2706 » Tue May 19, 2009 9:56 pm
I got the ans as 9


I am not sure.. So not sure of my method.

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by dumb.doofus » Wed May 20, 2009 12:10 am
This is a question from High School Math Contest University of South Carolina, December 8, 2007

Tough one.. still trying :-)
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by bluementor » Wed May 20, 2009 2:07 am
no. of red marbles = x
no. of blue marbles = y

prob(different colors) = prob(1st = red, 2nd = blue) + prob(1st = blue, 2nd = red)

= prob(1st = red)*prob(2nd = blue) + prob(1st = blue)*prob(2nd = red)

= (x/(x+y))*(y/(x+y-1)) + (y/(x+y))*(x/(x+y-1))

= xy/(x+y)(x+y-1) + xy/(x+y)(x+y-1)

= 2xy/(x+y)(x+y-1)

given that, prob(different colors) = 1/2, so,

1/2 = 2xy/(x+y)(x+y-1)
(x+y)(x+y-1) = 4xy
x^2 + y^2 + 2xy - x - y = 4xy
x^2 - 2xy + y^2 = x + y
(x - y)^2 = x + y

x can be 7, 9, 11, 13, and 15, and y must be an integer. The only way forward that I can think of is to plug in various values for x and see if there is an integer solution for y. Trying out choices A to E, you will see that only choice E yields an integer solution for y (x = 15, y = 10).

Choose E.

P.S. I'd love to see a more elegant solution to this problem.

-BM-
Last edited by bluementor on Wed May 20, 2009 6:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

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by dtweah » Wed May 20, 2009 5:19 am
bluementor wrote:no. of red marbles = x
no. of blue marbles = y

prob(different colors) = prob(1st = red, 2nd = blue) + prob(1st = blue, 2nd = red)

= prob(1st = red)*prob(2nd = blue) + prob(1st = blue)*prob(2nd = red)

= (x/(x+y))*(y/(x+y-1)) + (y/(x+y))*(x/(x+y-1))

= xy/(x+y)(x+y-1) + xy/(x+y)(x+y-1)

= 2xy/(x+y)(x+y-1)

given that, prob(different colors) = 1/2, so,

1/2 = 2xy/(x+y)(x+y-1)
(x+y)(x+y-1) = 4xy
x^2 + y^2 + 2xy - x - y = 4xy
x^2 - 2xy + y^2 = x + y
(x - y)^2 = x + y

x can be 7, 9, 11, 13, and 15, and y must be an integer. The only way forward that I can think of is to plug in various values for x and see if there is an integer solution for y. Trying out choices A to E, you will see that only choice E yields an integer solution for y (x = 15, y = 5).

Choose E.

P.S. I'd love to see a more elegant solution to this problem.

-BM-
Here is the OA
Let r be the number of red marbles and b the number of blue marbles. The number of ways of choosing two marbles is (r+b)C2 . The number of ways of choosing two different color marbles is rb.
Hence, we have 1/2= rb/(r+b)C2 = 2rb/(r + b)(r + b − 1)
.
This can be rewritten as
b2 − (2r + 1)b + r2 − r = 0.
Since the number of blue marbles must be an integer that is a root of the above equation, we deduce
that the discriminant of this quadratic is a square. In other words, there is an integer m such that
(2r + 1)2 − 4(r^r − r) = m2 =) 8r + 1 = m2.
The only r = {7, 9, 11, 13, 15} for which this equation holds for some integer m is 15, so the answer is 15. One can check that if r = 15 and b = 10, the probability that two randomly chosen marbles have different olors is in fact 0.5.


My solution:

In my approach I reasoned that the only number among the choices that is a factor of 5 is 15 so I would begin with 15 and test. If this did not work I would have to guess the answer.

15C1 x BC1/(15 +B)C2 = 1/2
After simplifying this gives

B^2 -41B +210 =0
which produces a discriminant that has a perfect square (841)^.5 =29
Once I recognize this perfect sqaure I choose E