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Predicting next year's inflation

Expert replies
by LulaBrazilia » Thu Mar 06, 2014 10:06 pm
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but during the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?

(A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.

(B) Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.

(C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.

(D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10-year low.

(E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.
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Source: — Critical Reasoning |

by Patrick_GMATFix » Thu Mar 06, 2014 10:29 pm
This conclusion about a general trend is based on only 2 data points. This is inherently dangerous. To weaken the conclusion, the right answer will likely show that if we take a wider perspective (more data points) the conclusion that inflation will rise next year won't make sense.

The answer is B. I go through the question in detail in the full solution below (taken from the GMATFix App).

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-Patrick
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