The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells gourmet food items from various countries:
"A local wine store made an interesting discovery last month: it sold more French than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of French accordion music, but it sold more Italian than French wine on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion, be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
The assistant manager argues his claim based on a recent discovery that the type of music affects the sales on a particular day. As in, when french music is played french wine sells more. He goes on add that the sales of a gourmet shop can be increased in the similar manner. He recommends that if they put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from the country while the sale is going on. This would lead to increase in the profits. The argument is vulnerable to questionable assumptions.
Firstly, the author assumes that gourmet industry is exactly the same as the wine industry. Hence the results seen in the wine industry can be directly applied to the gourmet industry. The kind of audience wine industry caters is significantly different from the kind of audience catered by the gourmet industry. It is incorrect to assume that pattern visible in one particular region can be applied to all over. This assumption falls flat on this ground with out any statistically evidence backing such claim. The author should provide concrete statistical studies which justify the correlation between the two industries.
Secondly, the author assumes that the higher sales of a particular type of wine is a direct correlation for increased revenues and profits. The discovery just states that the music affected the preference of the customers. It does not say anything about the increased revenues. Maybe the wine store sold 3 more bottles Italian wine on a particular day, but it does not say anything it led to increased revenues. Hence the assistant manager's claim that such an exercise would lead to increased revenues falls raises serious doubts.
To summarize the assistant manager's claim that regional music will lead to increased sales in the gourmet industry is weakened significantly. He should provide more evidence to back his claims. He should base his claims on relevant studies that show similarity in the two industries. The conclusion that regional music be able to increase revenue and profits is a far fetched claim. Without relevant evidence the conclusion based on the a discovery is very weak to stand.
"A local wine store made an interesting discovery last month: it sold more French than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of French accordion music, but it sold more Italian than French wine on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion, be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
The assistant manager argues his claim based on a recent discovery that the type of music affects the sales on a particular day. As in, when french music is played french wine sells more. He goes on add that the sales of a gourmet shop can be increased in the similar manner. He recommends that if they put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from the country while the sale is going on. This would lead to increase in the profits. The argument is vulnerable to questionable assumptions.
Firstly, the author assumes that gourmet industry is exactly the same as the wine industry. Hence the results seen in the wine industry can be directly applied to the gourmet industry. The kind of audience wine industry caters is significantly different from the kind of audience catered by the gourmet industry. It is incorrect to assume that pattern visible in one particular region can be applied to all over. This assumption falls flat on this ground with out any statistically evidence backing such claim. The author should provide concrete statistical studies which justify the correlation between the two industries.
Secondly, the author assumes that the higher sales of a particular type of wine is a direct correlation for increased revenues and profits. The discovery just states that the music affected the preference of the customers. It does not say anything about the increased revenues. Maybe the wine store sold 3 more bottles Italian wine on a particular day, but it does not say anything it led to increased revenues. Hence the assistant manager's claim that such an exercise would lead to increased revenues falls raises serious doubts.
To summarize the assistant manager's claim that regional music will lead to increased sales in the gourmet industry is weakened significantly. He should provide more evidence to back his claims. He should base his claims on relevant studies that show similarity in the two industries. The conclusion that regional music be able to increase revenue and profits is a far fetched claim. Without relevant evidence the conclusion based on the a discovery is very weak to stand.
