Critical Reasoning

In order to save money, some of Company X's manufacturing plants converted from oil fuel to natural gas last year, when the cost of oil was more than the cost of natural gas. Because of a sudden, unexpected shortage, however, natural gas now costs more than oil, the price of which has fallen steeply over the past year. The cost of conversion back to oil would more than negate any cost savings in fuel. So Company X's fuel costs this year will be significantly higher than they were last year. Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument above depends?

A) Company X does not have money set aside for the increased costs of fuel.
b) The increase in the cost of fuel cannot be offset by reductions in other operating expenses.
c) The price of natural gas will never again fall below that of oil.
d) The cost of fuel needed by those of Company X's plants that converted to natural gas is not less than the cost of fuel needed by those plants still using oil.
e) The price of oil will not experience a sudden and steep increase.


I picked correct answer only because all others looked out of scope/irrelevant. But I am in search for clear understanding of the correct choice. I will post answer after sometime.

The wording is not clear.
https://www.manhattangmat.com/forums/cri ... t1841.html

the answer to this is D, right? please confirm, thanks

Hey cyrwr1,

You're right - the correct answer is D, although as the authors of the question admit in that link it's not entirely airtight, so I think on this one you can probably say that there really isn't a true "correct" answer.


One thing I do want to bring up, though, is the really clever wrong answer E. Whatever flaws the proposed correct answer may have, let's give credit where credit is due - E is a beautifully crafted incorrect answer choice. Why?

If you negate E, you'd find that "there WILL be a sudden and steep increase in the price of oil". Well, that would counteract the argument and say that switching to natural gas is looking like a smarter move, right? Oil certainly isn't the way to go if its prices are continuing to rise, too, so the decision looks smarter.

BUT - check the conclusion. The conclusion isn't "Company X made the wrong decision in switching to natural gas". Nor is it "Company X will spend more money on energy this year than it would have had it not made the switch."

The conclusion is "Company X's fuel costs will be significantly higher than they were LAST YEAR". So the price of oil going forward is irrelevant.


That brings up a critical point about critical reasoning - it's absolutely crucial to correctly identify and "own" the conclusion before you let yourself start browsing answer choices. The toughest questions are those that bait you into drawing your own conclusion that's just a little outside the scope of the actual conclusion, and this question and answer choice E provide a fantastic example.

Thank you very much Mr. Galvin for responding so quickly!

I was left with both Choices D and E.

I decided to eliminate E as even with the increase in oil prices. the cost(gas) will be more than last yr.

Is it to correct to make this statement?

This in my opinion would be a very good question, do you have a GMAT range for it?

Great methodology, cyrwr1 - that's exactly why you should eliminate choice E. It does not directly impact the conclusion of the stimulus as you mentioned - the conclusion only discusses the cost of this year vs. last year, and E won't change that cost relative to last year.

Given that E is such a compelling wrong answer choice, I'd definitely say that this is a pretty tough CR question in the high 600s to 700s range....that's just one man's take, but typically the harder CR questions are difficult because of the presence of tricky incorrect answer choices, and this one definitely fits that bill.

Please explain how D is correct.

Thanks.

If I think simply:
If Cost of Gas is not less than Cost Of Oil so there is no point in following the natural Gas Process for the long run. SO even if Conversion back to Oil initially negate the Savings it will be Ok for Long Term

NEGATION Test: If the Cost of Gas for Company X's plants is less(Total Cost/Unit Cost) Then The conversion is not needed..CONCLUSION Falls apart

(D)