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In the United States, of the people who moved

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In the United States, of the people who moved

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In the United States, of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years. Since many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.

(B) The number of people who move out of Florida to accept employment in other states has increased over the past ten years.

(C) There are far more local businesses in Florida that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.

(D) The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past ten years.

(E) The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.

Can some experts explain how to figure out the best answer?

OA D

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lheiannie07 wrote:
In the United States, of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years. Since many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.

(B) The number of people who move out of Florida to accept employment in other states has increased over the past ten years.

(C) There are far more local businesses in Florida that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.

(D) The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past ten years.

(E) The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.

Can some experts explain how to figure out the best answer?

OA D
Conclusion: Local business in Florida will suffer negative economic consequences
Premise: Of retirees moving from one state to another, the percentage moving to Florida has decreased by 3% over the last 10 years

Think about this with concrete numbers. Let's say that 10 years ago, 10% of all retirees moving from state to state moved to Florida. Now, say it's 7%. Can we conclude that fewer retirees are moving to Florida? Nope. Without knowing what's happened to the total number of retirees moving from one state to another, it's impossible to say. If 10 years ago, 10% of 1000 retirees moved to Florida and this past year 7% of 20,000 retirees moved to Florida, then this past year would have seen a greater influx of retirees despite the fact that a smaller percentage of movers are going to Florida.

This is what D captures. If the moving retiree population has increased in size, the fact that a smaller percentage of that population moves to Florida doesn't necessarily entail that fewer total people are moving to Florida.

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