geet wrote:Guidebook writer: I have visited hotels throughout the country and have noticed that in those built before 1930 the quality of the original carpentry work is generally superior to that in hotels built afterward. Clearly carpenters working on hotels before 1930 typically worked with more skill, care, and effort than carpenters who have worked on hotels built subsequently.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the guidebook writer�s argument?
A. The quality of original carpentry in hotels is generally far superior to the quality of original carpentry in other structures, such as houses and stores.
B. Hotels built since 1930 can generally accommodate more guests than those built before 1930.
C. The materials available to carpenters working before 1930 were not significantly different in quality from the materials available to carpenters working after 1930.
D. The better the quality of original carpentry in a building, the less likely that building is to fall into disuse and be demolished.
E. The average length of apprenticeship for carpenters has declined significantly since 1930.
OA l8r...do explain your logic!!!
I received a PM asking me to comment on this one.
Conclusion: carpenters worked with more care/skill on pre-1930 hotels
Evidence: pre-1930 hotels have higher quality carpentry
This is a classic instance of a survivor bias. Take a simple example. Say that, in 1929, there were 10 hotels in existence. Of these 10 hotels, 2 were extremely high quality and 8 were not. Over the years, the 8 low-quality hotels fell into disuse and were demolished, so only the 2 high-quality hotels were left standing.
Now imagine that someone today does a survey of pre-1930 hotels. He sees that there are two pre-1930 hotels, and both are beautiful. He then concludes that because 100% of the pre-1930 hotels are high quality, the pre-1930 carpenters were simply better craftsmen than carpenters are today. Obviously, this logic is faulty because the low-quality pre-1930 hotels disappeared and were therefore not part of his analysis. It's not the case that pre-1930 carpenters were better, but rather that
only the high-quality buildings were likely to survive, and thus the analysis is incomplete because it overlooks all the low-quality pre-1930 buildings that have vanished. This is the notion that
D captures.