The following appeared as part of an article in the travel section of a newspaper:
"Over the past decade, the restaurant industry in the country of Spiessa has experienced unprecedented growth. This
surge can be expected to continue in the coming years, fueled by recent social changes: personal incomes are rising,
more leisure time is available, single-person households are more common, and people have a greater interest in
gourmet food, as evidenced by a proliferation of publications on the subject."


My Response:
The article in the travel section of the newspaper states that the unprecedented growth of the restaurant industry in Spiessa will continue in the coming years. The reason for this is the social changes in Spiessa, including rising personal incomes, increased availability of leisure time, increased rate of single-person households, and a greater interest in gourmet food. This argument, however, is flawed. The evidence presented has significant gaps which make it difficult to agree with the article's ultimate conclusion.

To begin, the increase in the availability of leisure time can have several consequences. The article makes the assumption that this increased leisure time will be used to frequent the restaurants in Spiessa, further fueling its growth. However, there are many other scenarios which can play out with this leisure time. For example, it can be used for traveling, having residents leave the area for travel holidays. This would result in fewer consumers available locally to utilize the restaurants. To support the statement that leisure time would help to continue the growth of the restaurant industry, the article should conduct a survey of how people would utilize their free time. Should this survey result in a high proportion of responses indicating they would use it towards the restaurant industry, the argument would be improved.

Additionally, the article states that single-person households being "more common" will also help fuel the restaurant industry. There are several weaknesses with this statement. First and foremost, the measurement of "more common" is unknown in this context. The growth of the restaurant industry has been unprecedented, what factor of "more common" would be necessary to fulfill this growth? Moreover, what percentage of single-person households contribute to the restaurant industry in the first place? Perhaps the industry has been fueled by family oriented restaurants, which do not benefit from consumers in single-person households. The article can strengthen this relationship by providing statistics of how many single-person households eat at restaurants, and further, what constitutes more common.

Finally, the article states that greater interest in gourmet food will contribute to fueling the growth of the restaurant industry. This is a tremendous "leap of faith" argument which fails to account for the exact opposite affect that the greater interest in gourmet food may lead to. For example, the cable television network known as Food TV has increased in popularity and has had an explosive rate of growth in viewership. However, several surveys have shown that these viewers utilize the knowledge gained by the network, and the increased interest in gourmet food, in order to cook at home. The article uses an incorrect example to show cause and effect, as the exact opposite reaction typically occurs from increased interest in gourmet food.

While the unprecedented growth of the restaurant industry in Spiessa is certainly welcomed, the prediction that this trend will continue is not warranted. As stated, the article neglects to account for certain key statistical measures and also claims an incorrect outcome of a certain cause and effect. Therefore, unless further facts are presented, it is safe to assume that this unprecedented growth will not continue.