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Smoking-related illnesses

Expert replies
by erjamit » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:28 am
Hi,

I am quite confused by the following:-

Although most smoking-related illnesses are caused by inhaling the tar in tobacco smoke, it is addiction to nicotine that prevents most smokers from quitting. In an effort to decrease the incidence of smoking-related illnesses, lawmakers in Sandonia plan to reduce the average quantity of nicotine per cigarette by half over the next five years. Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?

A. The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years.

B. Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously.

C. The annual number of Sandonian smokers developing smoking-related illnesses will probably decrease during the next five years.

D. The proportion of Sandonians attempting to quit smoking who succeed in that attempt will probably decrease during the next five years.

E. The number of Sandonians who quit smoking during the next five years will probably exceed the number who quit during the last five years.

OA A

Also, it will be very helpful if someone can discuss the strategy to tackle similar questions.

Thanks
Amit
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Source: — Critical Reasoning |

by NSNguyen » Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:20 pm
A, directly express the situation
B, Irr
C, contradict, weakend the prediction
D, Irre
E, irr, comparison not makes effect.

the issue is the prediction that the number of smoked illness cause by tar will not decrease.

A reveal this.
Please share your idea and your reasoning :D
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by reachac » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:44 pm
IMO A.

Tar quant would increase means it wouldnt decrease :lol:
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by mmslf75 » Fri Jan 15, 2010 2:32 am
This is a must be true type ?
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by Testluv » Fri Jan 15, 2010 2:40 am
mmslf75 wrote:This is a must be true type ?
Yes sir it is. But notice that all of the answer choices use the word "probably". So we'd be asking ourselves whether it must be true that something is probably true....which of course is the same thing as simply asking whether something is probably true.

The only reason this is happening here is because the answer choices use the word "probably". This is still a must be true question.
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by jainrahul1985 » Sat Sep 18, 2010 4:23 am
Why is option B wrong and A correct ?
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by adi_800 » Sat Sep 18, 2010 4:38 am
jainrahul1985 wrote:Why is option B wrong and A correct ?
WHy would not people who are not addicted to smoking would start smoking more ciggis..
Also...check the bold part...

smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.
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by jainrahul1985 » Sat Sep 18, 2010 4:45 am
I am still not convinced with the explanation . Can experts comment on this ?
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by ov25 » Sat Sep 18, 2010 7:04 am
jainrahul1985 wrote:I am still not convinced with the explanation . Can experts comment on this ?
I am no expert. However, I want to offer my views if they help
B. Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously.
Note choice B deals with 1) those "who are not already addicted". Whereas the stimulus is about people who are addicted to nicotine in the sense that it prevent them from quitting. As the answer has to be suggested or inferred...this is wrong choice
2) Compares with numbers from previous years with those of next five years...the passage offers no statistics around previous years..this is true of E as well.

However, A is fairly supported. One of the premises is that nicotine prevents from quitting. This means that in order to maintain the levels of nicotine in blood, smokers may have to smoke more cigarettes (against quitting).

All other choices are wrong as in case C, (Cause-effect) tar -> annual sri ^ (smoking rel. illnesses increase). This is a classic mistaken negation tar\ (\=neg) -> sri\..... as there may be other causes besides tar that result in sri. (flawed). D talks about proportion of "suceeded quitters" among attempted quitters. Needless to say this proportion is outside the passage. We talked about E already.

hth
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by paddle_sweep » Sun Sep 19, 2010 8:52 pm
Testluv wrote:
mmslf75 wrote:This is a must be true type ?
Yes sir it is. But notice that all of the answer choices use the word "probably". So we'd be asking ourselves whether it must be true that something is probably true....which of course is the same thing as simply asking whether something is probably true.

The only reason this is happening here is because the answer choices use the word "probably". This is still a must be true question.
Excellent reasoning. By this we can conclude that 'A' is the correct answer.
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by tracyyahoo » Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:28 am
a has a probably, why is it wrong in here???


paddle_sweep wrote:
Testluv wrote:
mmslf75 wrote:This is a must be true type ?
Yes sir it is. But notice that all of the answer choices use the word "probably". So we'd be asking ourselves whether it must be true that something is probably true....which of course is the same thing as simply asking whether something is probably true.

The only reason this is happening here is because the answer choices use the word "probably". This is still a must be true question.
Excellent reasoning. By this we can conclude that 'A' is the correct answer.
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by ArunangsuSahu » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:55 am
(A)...Tar is not decreasing
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