Critical Reasoning

Some doomsayers are warning that long-range warming or cooling trends in weather patterns will drastically reduce grain production. More optimistic reports, however, point out that, even if such drifts in average temperature do occur, we should expect little change in grain production because there is little evidence that changes in rainfall patterns will occur Moreover, for most crops, climate-induced yield trends will be masked by both the year-to-year fluctuation of yields and by the enhancement of yields because of techonological factors.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the more optimistic reports mentioned in the passage are based?
A) Long-range changes in weather patterns cannot be accurately predicted.
B) The growing of grain is so highly dependent on technological factors that improvements in yield are unlikely, regardless of climatic conditions.
C) Trends in rainfall patterns are more difficult to isolate than are trends in temperature.
D) Long-range warming or cooling trends are more damaging to grain production if they are accompanied by changes in rainfall patterns than if they are not.
E) Long-range cooling trends are potentially more destructive to grain production than are long-range warming trends.

OA to follow.

Since this is an assumption question, we need premise nad a conclusion.

Conclusion is-we should expect little change in grain production.
Premise-there is little evidence that changes in rainfall patterns will occur.


How do you solve this?

B and D are the only 2 options to choose from i think

I chose D over B because, B rejects the fact that changes in the patterns of the rainfall do not impact the yield of the crops et al.

IMO C.

hitmewithgmat wrote:
A) Long-range changes in weather patterns cannot be accurately predicted.
B) The growing of grain is so highly dependent on technological factors that improvements in yield are unlikely, regardless of climatic conditions.
C) Trends in rainfall patterns are more difficult to isolate than are trends in temperature.
D) Long-range warming or cooling trends are more damaging to grain production if they are accompanied by changes in rainfall patterns than if they are not.
E) Long-range cooling trends are potentially more destructive to grain production than are long-range warming trends.

IMO-D

The arguer says that the weather changes are no big deal because there won't be a dramatic overhaul of rain. This is assuming that rainfall is bad. I say D

Should be D, it says clearly that changes in the weather pattern is not a big deal since it will not affect the rainfall patterns

OA is D.
Experts,could you break it down?
Premises and conclusion? I am dizzy..

I would go with option D as the correct option