Valid points. But you can still get in! Why not prepare your applications and as the deadlines come in the fall, decide then whether or not to hit "submit."
I know for me, my applications got better after the first few. It would be an arduous exercise to prepare them completely if you knew that you wouldn't submit this year, but it would prepare you to have some great apps for the following year.
Also, from what I can decipher from admission stats, it looks like most schools have a slightly higher acceptance rate of reapplicants than first-time applicants. So even if you didn't get into your top schools this year, you may be in a better position for the next season than if you didn't apply, especially if you have a promotion coming that would enhance your WE.
And certainly know all about #4 on the list, too. It's hard enough trying to plan for one person, so including girlfriends makes planning more difficult! I know more than one couple that is planning on a long-distance relationship for the first year. That's not for me, but that could be another option if you got into Duke later this year.