Probability sum

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Probability sum

by winnerhere » Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:19 am
A class has 100 students with roll numbers from 1 to 100.Six students are selected one after another at random to form a teamto take part in a quiz competition.Find the probability that the roll numbers of the first three students are in the ascendig order and the roll numbers of the last four students are in the descending order.

1. 1/720

2. 1/360

3. 1/180

4. 1/72

5. 1/36
Source: — Problem Solving |

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Re: Probability sum

by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Wed Oct 14, 2009 1:58 pm
winnerhere wrote:A class has 100 students with roll numbers from 1 to 100.Six students are selected one after another at random to form a teamto take part in a quiz competition.Find the probability that the roll numbers of the first three students are in the ascendig order and the roll numbers of the last four students are in the descending order.

1. 1/720

2. 1/360

3. 1/180

4. 1/72

5. 1/36
Hi! Are you sure that the question is posted correctly? I'm getting a different answer to the ones listed.

The first thing I thought when I read the question was "geez, that's super complicated and will require a lot of calculations!" Fortunately, my second thought (right on the heels of the first) was "wait - this is a GMAT question, it CAN'T require too much math!"

We can answer this question using basic permutations. Let's look at the two separate parts.

First, we want the first 3 numbers to be in ascending order. For 3 objects, there are 3! (3*2*1 = 6) different ways in which they can be arranged. If you were to write them out:

123
132
213
231
312
321

Only 1 of those 6 is in ascending order, therefore the probability that the first 3 are in ascending order is 1/6.

Second, we want the last 4 (I think this is the typo in the question) numbers to be in descending order. Applying the same approach, there are 4! (4*3*2 = 24) different possible arrangements, only 1 of which will go 6543. Therefore, the probability that the last 4 are in descending order is 1/24.

Since we want the probability of MULTIPLE events occuring, we MULTIPLY the individual results:

(1/6) * (1/24) = 1/144

which, sadly, isn't among the choices.

Now, it's certainly possible that I've made a mistake. However, my hubris shining through, I'm guessing that the end of the question should have read:

"and the roll numbers of the last three students are in descending order."

In which case the answer would be:

(1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36... choose (5).
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by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Wed Oct 14, 2009 3:15 pm
Hmm... I may be changing my mind on my solution!

Instead of looking at it as two separate conditions, we can view it as one whole.

For 6 numbers, there are 6! ways of arranging them.

We want one specific arrangement: 1-2-3 going up, then 3-4-5-6 going down.

Therefore, we know that the 3rd number must be the highest of the 6.

For the other 5 numbers, there are many different ways to arrange them. Let's say our numbers are 1 2 3 4 5 and 6. We could have:

1 2 6 5 4 3
1 3 6 5 4 2
1 4 6 5 4 3
1 5 6 4 3 2

and lots of other arrangements.

Basically, we can choose any 2 of the numbers for the first two slots, then the 3 numbers for the last 3 slots are automatically chosen from the remaining numbers. Also, once we choose which numbers go before and after the 3rd number, they auto-arrange themselves in only 1 possible fashion.

So, there are 5C2 = 10 different ways to separate and arrange our 6 numbers.

Probability = # desired outcomes / total # of possibilities

Here, we get:

Prob = 10/720 = 1/72

I *think* that my first solution was flawed because we had one number (the 3rd) that appeared in both sequences, so the events were not independent (i.e. we already knew that the 3rd number was higher than the first two), leading to an inadvertent doubling of the total number of possibilities (that's why I ended up with 144 instead of 72).
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by winnerhere » Wed Oct 14, 2009 5:29 pm
thanks stuart

The answer is 1/72

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by life is a test » Thu Oct 15, 2009 6:32 am
Thanks Stuart but I am still lost.

Since there are 100 different numbers why cant we think of it as 98 different possibilities for first number (98 since the second and third number must be ascending and there are only 100 nos.) and 97 possibilities for second and 96 possibilities for 3rd no.?? i.e. 98*97*96 (at least for the ascending part)...

would really appreciate if someone could point out the flaws in my logic or give a different angle on the explanation?

thanks!

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by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:05 am
life is a test wrote:Thanks Stuart but I am still lost.

Since there are 100 different numbers why cant we think of it as 98 different possibilities for first number (98 since the second and third number must be ascending and there are only 100 nos.) and 97 possibilities for second and 96 possibilities for 3rd no.?? i.e. 98*97*96 (at least for the ascending part)...

would really appreciate if someone could point out the flaws in my logic or give a different angle on the explanation?

thanks!
We can think that way becuase there are only 98 possibilities for the first number if the 2nd and 3rd are 99 and 100; by saying that there are 98 possibilities, you've fixed the 2nd and 3rd numbers in place.
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by NikolayZ » Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:14 am
Hey "Life is a test"
We can't do so, because for every number x from 1 to 100, there will be different quantity of numbers that are >x and <x.
Try 72 and 34
For the first one the prob of picking the bigger figure next is 38/100, for the second one prob. is 66/100.
Hope this helps.

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by life is a test » Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:39 pm
Stuart you have tackled the sequence relating to the lowest starting values (4 5 6 3 2 1) but am still not clear about how you would tackle the highest starting values (98 99 100 x y)

where x and y can have 97 possibilities for x and 96 possibilities for y hence giving desired outcomes > 10)...am i making this more complicated than it is??

Thanks NikolayZ and Stuart, your responses are greatly appreciated.

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by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:27 am
life is a test wrote:Stuart you have tackled the sequence relating to the lowest starting values (4 5 6 3 2 1) but am still not clear about how you would tackle the highest starting values (98 99 100 x y)

where x and y can have 97 possibilities for x and 96 possibilities for y hence giving desired outcomes > 10)...am i making this more complicated than it is??

Thanks NikolayZ and Stuart, your responses are greatly appreciated.
I just used the numbers I chose for simplicity's sake - the actual numbers are irrelevant, once we've chosen them.

Your line of reasoning is the one I first thought I'd have to adopt when I thought that the math would be crazy complicated. However, we need to realize that we'll never have to worry about hundreds of thousands of possible cases - that question would be unanswerable in 2 minutes.

Once we choose our 6 numbers, my reasoning applies no matter what those numbers are. Recognizing that probability patters in random selections like this one are symmetrical (i.e. the wacky things that happen when you start with really big numbers will be balanced out by the things that happen when you start with really small numbers), we can safely ignore every individual case and just look at the big picture.
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by life is a test » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:28 pm
Stuart Kovinsky wrote:
life is a test wrote:Stuart you have tackled the sequence relating to the lowest starting values (4 5 6 3 2 1) but am still not clear about how you would tackle the highest starting values (98 99 100 x y)

where x and y can have 97 possibilities for x and 96 possibilities for y hence giving desired outcomes > 10)...am i making this more complicated than it is??

Thanks NikolayZ and Stuart, your responses are greatly appreciated.
I just used the numbers I chose for simplicity's sake - the actual numbers are irrelevant, once we've chosen them.

Your line of reasoning is the one I first thought I'd have to adopt when I thought that the math would be crazy complicated. However, we need to realize that we'll never have to worry about hundreds of thousands of possible cases - that question would be unanswerable in 2 minutes.

Once we choose our 6 numbers, my reasoning applies no matter what those numbers are. Recognizing that probability patters in random selections like this one are symmetrical (i.e. the wacky things that happen when you start with really big numbers will be balanced out by the things that happen when you start with really small numbers), we can safely ignore every individual case and just look at the big picture.
Stuart thanks one thing is clear which i got confused with that the nos. are already chosen and hence determined - we just need to figure out the probability of their arrangement being as stated.

However, I still don't understand why 'we can choose any 2 of the numbers for the first two slots' since the first slot cannot contain the second highest value as it would then not be possible to fill slot 2 with a higher no. --> hence isn't the number of possibilities for 1st slot 4 rather than 5 and for slot 2 also 4?

sorry for continuing to question it but I want to be prepared for the exam and probaility is not my strong point!

thnks!

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by winnerhere » Sat Oct 17, 2009 3:53 am
life is a test wrote:
sorry for continuing to question it but I want to be prepared for the exam and probaility is not my strong point!

thnks!
he is selecting any two numbers because after choosing them there is just a single way to arrane it in ascending order.

we can choose two numbers in 5c2 ways and each selection can be arranged in just 1 way - so there are 5c2 ways.

the remaing three numbers can be arranged in just one way.

stuart,

How would u rate this question as far as difficulty level is considered?

from GMAT point of view

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by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:07 am
life is a test wrote: Stuart thanks one thing is clear which i got confused with that the nos. are already chosen and hence determined - we just need to figure out the probability of their arrangement being as stated.

However, I still don't understand why 'we can choose any 2 of the numbers for the first two slots' since the first slot cannot contain the second highest value as it would then not be possible to fill slot 2 with a higher no. --> hence isn't the number of possibilities for 1st slot 4 rather than 5 and for slot 2 also 4?
We can't choose any two numbers for the first slot and second slot individually, but we can choose any two numbers for the first slot and second slot collectively.

For example, using 1 2 3 4 5 6 again, we know that 6 has to be 3rd. We can then pick any pair of the remaining 5 numbers for the first and second slots; however, once we choose those two numbers, there's only one way to arrange them in the first two slots to meet the question's requirements.

So, we can pick 4 and 5, but then 4 automatically goes in the first slot and 5 in the second.
stuart,

How would u rate this question as far as difficulty level is considered?

from GMAT point of view
I'd say somewhere in the mid-700s.
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by life is a test » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:21 am
Stuart Kovinsky wrote:
life is a test wrote: Stuart thanks one thing is clear which i got confused with that the nos. are already chosen and hence determined - we just need to figure out the probability of their arrangement being as stated.

However, I still don't understand why 'we can choose any 2 of the numbers for the first two slots' since the first slot cannot contain the second highest value as it would then not be possible to fill slot 2 with a higher no. --> hence isn't the number of possibilities for 1st slot 4 rather than 5 and for slot 2 also 4?
We can't choose any two numbers for the first slot and second slot individually, but we can choose any two numbers for the first slot and second slot collectively.

For example, using 1 2 3 4 5 6 again, we know that 6 has to be 3rd. We can then pick any pair of the remaining 5 numbers for the first and second slots; however, once we choose those two numbers, there's only one way to arrange them in the first two slots to meet the question's requirements.

So, we can pick 4 and 5, but then 4 automatically goes in the first slot and 5 in the second.
stuart,

How would u rate this question as far as difficulty level is considered?

from GMAT point of view
I'd say somewhere in the mid-700s.
gottit! thanks for bearing with me!