Evaluate Question.........Veritas question

[Mo2men]

62% of baseball fans believe their favorite team will win the World Series within the next five years. But, of course, only one team can win the World Series each year, so, in a league with 30 teams, at most 5, or 16.7%, will actually win. Clearly, many of these fans' championship expectations for their favorite teams will go unmet.

In evaluating the argument, it would be most useful to determine which of the following?

A. Whether baseball will drastically change the number of teams that qualify for the playoffs during the next five years.
B. How many teams are good enough to be considered championship contenders in an average year.
C. Whether a single team is likely win the World Series multiple times during the next five years.
D. Whether each team has roughly the same number of fans.
E. How many current fans will continue to follow their teams if their championship expectations are not met.

Source: Veritas

OA:D

[GMATGuruNY]

62% of baseball fans believe their favorite team will win the World Series within the next five years. But, of course, only one team can win the World Series each year, so, in a league with 30 teams, at most 5, or 16.7%, will actually win. Clearly, many of these fans' championship expectations for their favorite teams will go unmet.

In evaluating the argument, it would be most useful to determine which of the following?

A. Whether baseball will drastically change the number of teams that qualify for the playoffs during the next five years.
B. How many teams are good enough to be considered championship contenders in an average year.
C. Whether a single team is likely win the World Series multiple times during the next five years.
D. Whether each team has roughly the same number of fans.
E. How many current fans will continue to follow their teams if their championship expectations are not met.

Premise: Of the 30 teams, each has a 16.7% chance of winning the World Series, implying that each has a 83.3% of NOT winning the World Series.
Conclusion: Many of these fans' championship expectations for their favorite teams will go unmet.

The argument concludes that -- since most TEAMS will not win the World Series -- many FANS will be disappointed.

But consider the following case:
The 5 winning teams claim 99% of the total number of baseball fans.
The 25 losing teams claim only 1% of the total number of baseballs fans.
In this case, the 99% whose teams win will be HAPPY.

One way to strengthen the conclusion that many fans will be DISAPPOINTED is to show that the case above is not possible.

Rephrase the answer choices as STATEMENTS.
The correct rephrase will either strengthen or weaken the conclusion.

D, rephrased as a statement:
Each team has roughly the same number of fans.
This rephrase shows that the case above is not possible, strengthening the conclusion that many fans will be disappointed.

The correct answer is D.