probability

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probability

by sud21 » Sat Jan 28, 2012 11:06 pm
A fair coin is tossed 6 times. What is the probability of not getting two heads on consecutive tosses?
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by Mike@Magoosh » Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:35 pm
Hi, there. I'm happy to help with this. :)

This is a HARD probability question. I am going to tackle it by enumerating cases.

A fair coin is tossed 6 times. Each toss has two possibilities, heads or tails, so the total number of six coin results from the six tosses is 2^6 = 64. How many of those 64 cases do not have two heads in a row.

a) cases with 6 T and 0 H

There's only one case like this: TTTTTT

b) cases with 5 T and 1 H

There are six cases like this:
HTTTTT
THTTTT
TTHTTT
TTTHTT
TTTTHT
TTTTTH

c) cases with 4 T and 2 H

There are ten cases like this:
HTHTTT
HTTHTT
HTTTHT
HTTTTH
THTHTT
THTTHT
THTTTH
TTHTHT
TTHTTH
TTTHTH


d) cases with 3 H and 3 T

There are only two cases like this:
HTHTHT
THTHTH

With 4 or more heads, you would have to have two H's in a row, so there are no more cases. To summarize:

(a) = 1 case
(b) = 6 cases
(c) = 10 cases
(d) = 2 cases
That's 19 cases total.

Probability of not getting two H's in a row in 6 tosses = 19/64.

Does that make sense? Please let me know if you have any questions on that.

Mike :-)
Last edited by Mike@Magoosh on Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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by MakeUrTimeCount » Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:01 pm
Hi Mike,

Great Approach to go for this question.
My question is that how would you approach this problem when number of tosses are 15 ?

The enumeration will take ages to get the answer. Is there any other approach ?

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by Mike@Magoosh » Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:12 pm
Dear MakeUrTimeCount,

That's a fantastic question. First, let's be clear. The problem with six tosses is already hard, near the outer limit of what the GMAT is going to ask. There's not a snowball's chance in the Sahara that the GMAT would ever ask you about the 15 toss case. That's way above and beyond what any ordinary non-Isaac-Newton could be expected to do with pencil and paper.

Also, I'll say: if I had to calculate the 15 toss case myself, my preference would be to write a program and let a computer do the heavy lifting.

Having said that, what can we say about the solution? Well, we still have to break things down by cases, each # of heads a different case.

So, the question: How many ways are there to toss 15 coins and get no two head on consecutive tosses?

Case #1: 0 H and 15 T

Easy ---> 1 case

Case #2: 1 H and 14 T

Easy ---> put the H in every slot ---> 15 case

Case #3: 2 H and 13 T

OK, so 15C2 = 105 --- that's all the ways to distribute two head; then subtract the 14 possibilities when they are adjacent (at positions 1 & 2, or 2 & 3, or 3 & 4, etc., up to 14 & 15). That leaves 91 cases. OK, so far.

Case #4: 3 H and 12 T

Now things start to get dicey.

One method would be to start with 15C3 = 455, then subtract doubles and triples ---> :( not easy

Another method would be: consider what you have as

(A T's) - H - (B T's) - H - (C T's) - H - (D T's)

where integers A, B, C, D have the properties that A & D are >= 0, B & C are >= 1, and A + B + C + D = 12. I'm not sure, but I suspect patterns may emerge here . . .

A = 0, B = 1 ---> C can be anything from 1-13, so 13 cases
A = 0, B = 2 ---> C has 12 possibilities, so 12 cases, etc. etc.
....
A = 0, B = 11, C = 1 ---- 1 case
A = 1, B = 1 ---> C has 12 possibilities, so 12 cases, etc.
...

That approach seems promising, but again, my own predilection would be to let a computer carry it out to completion.

Part of what is coming into play with this way of thinking is a hard branch of math dealing with a beast known as the Partition Function -- (https://mathworld.wolfram.com/Partition.html) --- unless you have an advanced degree in pure math, that stuff will probably make your head spin. It took folks like the super-genius Ramanujan to tame the partition function.

I will decline to pursue this analysis any further --- I will point out that in the next few cases, I probably would try something very much like this second approach in Case #4. Also, I will point out that toward the end it simplifies again

Case 8: 7 H and 8 T

36 cases (I'll let you think about why --- see explanation in post below)

Case 9: 8 H and 7 T

1 case only.

So, not a complete solution, but I hope that gives you a taste of what would be involved. Again, really only a masochist or a super-genius would commit to a purely paper & pencil approach to this problem. Most of us mere mortals would resort to computers.

Great question. Let me know if you find anything I've said unclear, or if you have any follow up questions.

Mike :)
Last edited by Mike@Magoosh on Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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by MakeUrTimeCount » Wed Feb 01, 2012 4:43 am
Thanks Mike.

I know this in not a GMAT question, was just curious to see your approach in this scenario :)

For eg: Let's say there are 7 heads out of 15. So which is the convinient way:
15C2 - (a. 14C2 + b. 13C3 + ... + c 8C7)

or some alternative.

Sorry, if I had put on test :)

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by Whitney Garner » Wed Feb 01, 2012 7:21 am
Mike@Magoosh wrote: c) cases with 4 T and 2 H

There are six cases like this:
HTTHTT
HTTTHT
HTTTTH
THTTHT
THTTTH
TTHTTH
Shouldn't this be 10:
HTHTTT
HTTHTT
HTTTHT
HTTTTH
THTHTT
THTTHT
THTTTH
TTHTHT
TTHTTH
TTTHTH

We need to include cases where the Heads are only 1 apart. This brings the running tally to 1+6+10+2 = 19.

:)
Whit
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by Mike@Magoosh » Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:30 am
Whitney Garner,

Yes, you're right. Thank you for catching that.

Mike :)
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by Mike@Magoosh » Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:32 pm
MakeUrTimeCount wrote:Thanks Mike.

I know this in not a GMAT question, was just curious to see your approach in this scenario :)

For eg: Let's say there are 7 heads out of 15. So which is the convinient way:
15C2 - (a. 14C2 + b. 13C3 + ... + c 8C7)

or some alternative.

Sorry, if I had put on test :)
So, if we are still talking about the question of, with 15 total toss, the probability that no two consecutive tosses being heads, then the 7 head case is not hard at all. Consider this group of 13 tosses

H TH TH TH TH TH TH

All seven H's and 6 t's placed. In each one of those eight blank spots, we could put either one or two of the remaining two tails.

Possibilities for putting both together = 8

Possibilities for putting them in two different places = 8C2 = 28

Total possibilities = 8 + 28 = 36. (Different from what I had before ---oops! :oops: )

Does that make sense?

Mike :)
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