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Citizen: Each year since 1970, a new record

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Citizen: Each year since 1970, a new record

by vinni.k » Tue Jul 17, 2012 8:12 am
Citizen: Each year since 1970, a new record has been set for the number of murders committed in this city. This fact points to the decreasing ability of our law enforcement system to prevent violent crime.

City Official: You overlook the fact that the city's population has risen steadily since 1970. In fact, the number of murder victims per 100 people has actually fallen slightly in the city since 1970.

Which one of the following, if true, would most strongly counter the city official's response?

A. The incidence of fraud has greatly increased int he city since 1970.
B. The rate of murders in the city since 1970 decreased according to the age group of the victim, decreasing more for younger victims.
C. Murders and other violent crimes are more likely to be reported now than they were in 1970.
D. The number of law enforcement officials in the city has increased at a rate judged by city law enforcement experts to be sufficient to serve the city's increased population.
E. If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.

Answer after some discussions.

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Vinni
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by GMATGuruNY » Tue Jul 17, 2012 8:45 am
vinni.k wrote:Citizen: Each year since 1970, a new record has been set for the number of murders committed in this city. This fact points to the decreasing ability of our law enforcement system to prevent violent crime.

City Official: You overlook the fact that the city's population has risen steadily since 1970. In fact, the number of murder victims per 100 people has actually fallen slightly in the city since 1970.

Which one of the following, if true, would most strongly counter the city official's response?

A. The incidence of fraud has greatly increased int he city since 1970.
B. The rate of murders in the city since 1970 decreased according to the age group of the victim, decreasing more for younger victims.
C. Murders and other violent crimes are more likely to be reported now than they were in 1970.
D. The number of law enforcement officials in the city has increased at a rate judged by city law enforcement experts to be sufficient to serve the city's increased population.
E. If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.

Answer after some discussions.

Thanks & Regards
Vinni
The City Official links LAW ENFORCEMENT to a DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
The correct answer must BREAK this link.

Answer choice E: If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.
E weakens the conclusion by implying that the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE is responsible for the DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
In 1970, assault victims did not receive adequate health care, so more of them died.
The result: a high murder rate.
Last year, assault victims received BETTER HEALTH care, so fewer of them died.
The result: a DECREASE in the murder rate.
Thus, it was not law enforcement but BETTER HEALTH CARE that caused the decrease in the per capita murder rate.

The correct answer is E.
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by vk_vinayak » Tue Jul 17, 2012 8:54 am
We need to undermine the official's response: The murder rate has come down.

A. Fraud is out of scope

B. Again, we are looking for total murder rate, not per age group. Eliminate.

C. Classical answer. Looks good. Keep it.

D. When the official says that population has increased, he assmes that law enforcement officials might have not increased at the same rate, but it has. Still we are not talking about percentages, but absolute number of murders.

E. This also looks good.

When I read C, I almost finalized the answer, and when I read 'healthcare' in E, I almost rejected it. But, after careful evaluation, I feel that E is the best answer. It says that without the advanced healthcare, number of assaults would have been converted into murders, increasing the number of murders committed.
- VK

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by vk_vinayak » Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:19 am
GMATGuruNY wrote:
The City Official links LAW ENFORCEMENT to a DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
The correct answer must BREAK this link.

Answer choice E: If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.
E weakens the conclusion by implying that the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE is responsible for the DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
In 1970, assault victims did not receive adequate health care, so more of them died.
The result: a high murder rate.
Last year, assault victims received BETTER HEALTH care, so fewer of them died.
The result: a DECREASE in the murder rate.
Thus, it was not law enforcement but BETTER HEALTH CARE that caused the decrease in the per capita murder rate.

The correct answer is E.
Mitch, I also arrived at E, and I knew that E is better than C and D. Can you please explain how these two are wrong?
When I read D, I eliminated it, but when I sat to write down the reason I couldn't come up with a solid reason.
- VK

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by vinni.k » Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:41 am
GMATGuruNY wrote: The City Official links LAW ENFORCEMENT to a DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
The correct answer must BREAK this link.

Answer choice E: If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.
E weakens the conclusion by implying that the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE is responsible for the DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
In 1970, assault victims did not receive adequate health care, so more of them died.
The result: a high murder rate.
Last year, assault victims received BETTER HEALTH care, so fewer of them died.
The result: a DECREASE in the murder rate.
Thus, it was not law enforcement but BETTER HEALTH CARE that caused the decrease in the per capita murder rate.

The correct answer is E.
Thanks Mitch.
Let me take it in this way.
E weakens the conclusion by implying that the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE is responsible for the DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE, means that if quality of health care is better, the result is a DECREASE in the murder rate and vice versa.

So, it depends on the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE and not on the LAW ENFORCEMENT.
What i am not able to understand is your example or not able to relate it with the explanation given in E.

Choice E says, If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.

In your example, the health care received in 1970 and in last year is opposite, but as in choice E the health care received must be of the same quality both in 1970 and in last year.

I got first part of your explanation but not able to relate this example.

Second, how can i eliminate C as it was my first choice while selecting the answer.

Looking forward to your reply.

Regards
Vinni
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by GMATGuruNY » Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:44 am
vk_vinayak wrote:
GMATGuruNY wrote:
The City Official links LAW ENFORCEMENT to a DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
The correct answer must BREAK this link.

Answer choice E: If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.
E weakens the conclusion by implying that the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE is responsible for the DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
In 1970, assault victims did not receive adequate health care, so more of them died.
The result: a high murder rate.
Last year, assault victims received BETTER HEALTH care, so fewer of them died.
The result: a DECREASE in the murder rate.
Thus, it was not law enforcement but BETTER HEALTH CARE that caused the decrease in the per capita murder rate.

The correct answer is E.
Mitch, I also arrived at E, and I knew that E is better than C and D. Can you please explain how these two are wrong?
When I read D, I eliminated it, but when I sat to write down the reason I couldn't come up with a solid reason.
When a CR offers statistics, the assumption is that there is ONLY ONE WAY to interpret the statistics.
According to the City Official, the Citizen is drawing the wrong conclusion from the record number of murders.

C: Murders and other violent crimes are more likely to be reported now than they were in 1970.
The implication here is that the reason for the record number of murders is that more murders are being reported.
Thus, this answer choice could SUPPORT the City Official's contention that the Citizen is drawing the wrong conclusion from the record number of murders.
Since the correct answer must WEAKEN the City Official's contention, eliminate C.

D: The number of law enforcement officials in the city has increased at a rate judged by city law enforcement experts to be sufficient to serve the city's increased population.
With this information, the City Official could claim that the increase in law enforcement is the reason for the decrease in the per capita murder rate.
Thus, D could SUPPORT the City's Official's conclusion.
Since the correct answer must WEAKEN the City Official's conclusion, eliminate D.
Last edited by GMATGuruNY on Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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by GMATGuruNY » Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:09 am
vinni.k wrote:
GMATGuruNY wrote: The City Official links LAW ENFORCEMENT to a DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
The correct answer must BREAK this link.

Answer choice E: If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.
E weakens the conclusion by implying that the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE is responsible for the DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE.
In 1970, assault victims did not receive adequate health care, so more of them died.
The result: a high murder rate.
Last year, assault victims received BETTER HEALTH care, so fewer of them died.
The result: a DECREASE in the murder rate.
Thus, it was not law enforcement but BETTER HEALTH CARE that caused the decrease in the per capita murder rate.

The correct answer is E.
Thanks Mitch.
Let me take it in this way.
E weakens the conclusion by implying that the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE is responsible for the DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MURDER VICTIMS PER 100 PEOPLE, means that if quality of health care is better, the result is a DECREASE in the murder rate and vice versa.

So, it depends on the QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE and not on the LAW ENFORCEMENT.
What i am not able to understand is your example or not able to relate it with the explanation given in E.

Choice E says, If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970, the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.

In your example, the health care received in 1970 and in last year is opposite, but as in choice E the health care received must be of the same quality both in 1970 and in last year.

I got first part of your explanation but not able to relate this example.

Second, how can i eliminate C as it was my first choice while selecting the answer.

Looking forward to your reply.

Regards
Vinni
If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970...
In other words, the health care received by assault victims last year was NOT of the same quality.
The implication is that the health care received by assault victims last year was of BETTER quality.
Moreover, if the health care received by assault victims last year had NOT been of better quality, then more of them would have died, with the result that the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.
Thus, the reason for the decrease in the murder rate is that fewer assault victims died, weakening the conclusion that LAW ENFORCEMENT is responsible for the decrease in the murder rate.

With regard to answer choice C, please check my post above.
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by vinni.k » Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:43 am
GMATGuruNY wrote:
If the health care received by assault victims last year had been of the same quality as it was in 1970...
In other words, the health care received by assault victims last year was NOT of the same quality.
The implication is that the health care received by assault victims last year was of BETTER quality.
Moreover, if the health care received by assault victims last year had NOT been of better quality, then more of them would have died, with the result that the murder rate in the city last year would have turned out to be several times what it actually was.
Thus, the reason for the decrease in the murder rate is that fewer assault victims died, weakening the conclusion that LAW ENFORCEMENT is responsible for the decrease in the murder rate.

With regard to answer choice C, please check my post above.
Thanks Mitch. Got your explanation.

Regards
Vinni
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