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SunState retirees

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by kanha81 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:16 am
Of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the proportion who retired to SunState has decreased by 10 percent over the past five years. Since many local businesses in SunState cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

SunState attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.

There are far more local businesses in SunState that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.

The number of retirees who have moved out of SunState to accept re-employment in other states has increased over the past five years.

SunState has lower property taxes than any other state, making the state a magnet for retirees.

The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past five years.

Can't seem to fathom the correct answer! Please help me understand your reasoning.
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Re: SunState retirees

by arunpp » Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:46 am
kanha81 wrote:Of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the proportion who retired to SunState has decreased by 10 percent over the past five years. Since many local businesses in SunState cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

SunState attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.

There are far more local businesses in SunState that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.

The number of retirees who have moved out of SunState to accept re-employment in other states has increased over the past five years.

SunState has lower property taxes than any other state, making the state a magnet for retirees.

The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past five years.

Can't seem to fathom the correct answer! Please help me understand your reasoning.
Hi,

This is my first post in beatthegmat, so kindly excuse me in case you find something wrong with my post/approach.

IMO, option B is the answer. There are two loop holes in this reasoning. 1. It tries to mix percentage with numbers. 2. Another hole in the argument is local businesses catering retirees VS all local businesses. So, considering these, A - wrong because of reason 1, C - strengthens the conclusion rather than weaken it, D - "so what?" option. Still, the fact is, incoming retirees have reduced by 10% in the past 5 years, E - Same reason as stated for option D. So, only option B correctly identifies a point which weakens the argument. If B is true, the economic effect on local businesses will be either unaffected or improve. But this is under the dangerous assumption that tourists are more in number and/or contribute more to the economy than retirees do. But considering the remaining options, this option stands out.

Pls post the OA.



Thanks,
Arun
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Re: SunState retirees

by madhur_ahuja » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:25 am
kanha81 wrote:

The number of retirees who have moved out of SunState to accept re-employment in other states has increased over the past five years.
.
IMO C.

If the already retired people are moving out of SunState then the 10% decrease is not due to less people moving SunState when they are retired.

Although this does not undermines the conclusion, but it does weakens the argument as a whole.
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by dendude » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:58 am
IMO E

The argument is, out of the total number of ppl switching states, the proportion going to SunState has decreased by 10%
But if the total number of ppl itself has increased overall, assuming the same proportion (with the 10% decrease) going to SunState, the actual number of ppl going to SunState would probably increase.

Eg. 20% of the total X went to Sunstate but over the 5 years it has become 10% of X
But X itself has increased significantly, maybe by Y, so there could be an increase in the number going to SunState
i.e 10% of (X+Y) could be greater than 20% of X

Not sure if I am explaining it clearly. But it seems pretty clear in my head.
And thats why I chose E.
Whats the OA?
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Re: SunState retirees

by ssmiles08 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:09 pm
It's a tie b/w A and D

so IMO A.
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by Kenen750 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:49 pm
Could anyone please explain why "A" is wrong?
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by mehravikas » Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:20 pm
IMO - B.

Not an expert but here are my two cents on why A is wrong -

Option A suggests that sunstate attracts more retirees than any other state. Lets say the number of retirees is 100000 in 5 years and there has been a 10% decline.

so even if it is attracts the highest number of retirees, still the businesses can suffer due to decline in overall percentage.
Kenen750 wrote:Could anyone please explain why "A" is wrong?
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by Domnu » Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:16 pm
Answers C and E can be thrown out since they bolster the argument. Among A, B, and D, B can be eliminated, since this is out of scope... we aren't concerned with the businesses involved in tourism; we are concerned with those involved with retirees (the passage specifically refers to these businesses). Between A and D, I would choose A, since it seems a bit stronger. However, D may be the better choice, since it also involves those retirees who choose to stay in SunState.
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Re: SunState retirees

by rahulg83 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:11 pm
kanha81 wrote:Of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the proportion who retired to SunState has decreased by 10 percent over the past five years. Since many local businesses in SunState cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

SunState attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.

There are far more local businesses in SunState that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.

The number of retirees who have moved out of SunState to accept re-employment in other states has increased over the past five years.

SunState has lower property taxes than any other state, making the state a magnet for retirees.

The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past five years.

Can't seem to fathom the correct answer! Please help me understand your reasoning.
Surely E
Argument says, just because proportion of people moving to SunState has decreased, local business will have a significant negative effect. But what if total number of retired people moving from one state to another has increased significantly? We can not say then that the number of retired people moving to Sunstate has dipped.
E does that...
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by Mayur Sand » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:20 pm
what's OA ?
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by aspirant_gmat » Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:58 am
I totally agree with rahulg83. The answer should be E.
If the the total number of retired people have increased significantly then
probably this increase will offset the 10 percent decrease in the overall proportion retiring to Sunstate.
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by kanha81 » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:23 am
dendude wrote:IMO E

The argument is, out of the total number of ppl switching states, the proportion going to SunState has decreased by 10%
But if the total number of ppl itself has increased overall, assuming the same proportion (with the 10% decrease) going to SunState, the actual number of ppl going to SunState would probably increase.

Eg. 20% of the total X went to Sunstate but over the 5 years it has become 10% of X
But X itself has increased significantly, maybe by Y, so there could be an increase in the number going to SunState
i.e 10% of (X+Y) could be greater than 20% of X

Not sure if I am explaining it clearly. But it seems pretty clear in my head.
And thats why I chose E.
Whats the OA?
Nice Explanation dendude. OA [spoiler][E][/spoiler]
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by krazy800 » Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:12 am
Kanha,
Could u also let us know the source of the question?

Thanks for a good post!
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by gmat_dest » Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:16 am
A variant of the question is in GMATPrep I guess.

Anyway, the correct answer is E.

Always understand the difference between raw numbers and percentages
whenever you see words like proportion and percentage in the stimulus and the question stem happens to be a Weakening one.
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by Sharma_Gaurav » Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:59 pm
Agree with answer E

Althought first thought of A ,
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