Question from the 'GMAT Review 12th ed'

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Question from the 'GMAT Review 12th ed'

by bmaree » Tue Dec 06, 2011 2:54 am
I hope this is the right place to post this question.
I'm currently studying the 'Math Review' section of the Official Guide for GMAT Reivew. Thing were going pretty fine till I reached the last paragraph of the 'Discrete Probability' section on page 120.
For those of you who have the book, I would greatly appreciate it if someone could give me insight into how did they reach the conclusions in this paragraph.
I'll retype the question for easier reference.
Consider an experiment with events A, B and C for which P(A)= 0.23, P(B)= 0.40 and P(C)= 0.85,
Also suppose that A and B are mutually exclusive and B and C are independent.
P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B) since mutually exclusive
= 0.23+0.40 = 0.63
P(B or C)= P(B)+P(C)-P(B)P(C) by independence
=0.40+0.85 = 0.91
Note that P(A or C) and P(A and C) cannot be determined using the information given
[I assume that's because the question didn't state whether they're mutually exclusive or independent in relevance to each other]
But it can be determined that A and C are not mutually exclusive since P(A)+P(C)=1.08, which is greater than 1, and therefore cannot equal P(A or C); from this it follows that P(A and C)>= 0.08. [How did they reach this conclusion? where did the 0.08 come from?]
The rest of the paragraph is clear.
Thank you in advance for any help.
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by Ian Stewart » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:10 am
bmaree wrote:
P(B or C)= P(B)+P(C)-P(B)P(C) by independence
=0.40+0.85 = 0.91
That last line should read:

=0.40+0.85 - (0.40)(0.85) = 0.91
bmaree wrote:
Note that P(A or C) and P(A and C) cannot be determined using the information given[/color] [I assume that's because the question didn't state whether they're mutually exclusive or independent in relevance to each other]
But it can be determined that A and C are not mutually exclusive since P(A)+P(C)=1.08, which is greater than 1, and therefore cannot equal P(A or C); from this it follows that P(A and C)>= 0.08. [How did they reach this conclusion? where did the 0.08 come from?]
If A and C were mutually exclusive, then P(A or C) would be equal to P(A) + P(C), so would be equal to 0.23 + 0.85 = 1.08. But that's greater than 1, and probabilities can never be greater than 1. So, since we get a nonsensical answer if we assume A and C are mutually exclusive, it must be impossible that A and C are mutually exclusive. Finally the 0.08 comes from the following: P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C) - P(A and C). We know that P(A or C) must be at most 1. Since P(A) + P(C) is 1.08, then to bring the right side of that equation down to a value of at most 1, it must be that P(A and C) is at least 0.08.

All of that said, I'd strongly recommend *not* using the OG to review counting and probability principles. Their treatment of the subject is pedantically formal and abstract. It's neither easy to follow, nor easy to apply to actual test questions. In general, the practice questions in the OG are great, but the review material at the beginning leaves a lot to be desired.
For online GMAT math tutoring, or to buy my higher-level Quant books and problem sets, contact me at ianstewartgmat at gmail.com

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