ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
MY RESPONSE
To own your house is like a dream come true. Article indicates that 70% of surveyed readers, of The Homebuilder magazine, are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. In the precedent statement, author claims that construction industry is likely to accelerate and will continue to offer lucrative opportunities for investment based on assumption that many of those surveyed readers will really build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. Though, his claim may well have some merits however, he presents a poorly reasoned argument purely based on unsupportive assumptions and questionable premises. As such, we can not accept his argument as valid as stated.
Firstly, the entire conclusion is merely based on upon number of readers who responded to the recently conducted survey. Author failed to provide additional details of the actual number of readers who responded. It is very possible that there were only 30 readers who responded to the survey and out of 30, only 21 readers (approx 70% of total respondent) indicated that they plan to build or purchase a new home.
In addition, author also assumes that there will be adequate financing available for all these buyers. There may be a credit crunch at local financial institutions, which may refuse to provide finance to the buyers. This assumption is more relevant considering very recent turmoil in the housing market, many financial institutions are not providing mortgage facility specially to the new buyers. It is quite possible that certain economic indicators showed improvement and therefore, 70% of respondents indicated the plan to buy or build a new home.
Lastly, author also assumes that there will be adequate supply by the builders or construction companies when demand increases. Without adequate research or details surrounding this assumption it is difficult to agree to author's conclusion. Overall, the author weakens his argument by making such assumptions and failing to provide explication of the links between actual number of respondents, financing options and adequate supply in the market and likelihood of accelerate in the construction industry he assumes exists.
Though there are several issues such as actual number of respondent to the survey, financing options available to the new buyers and existing market supply and demand of new home) with the author's reasoning at present, with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.
To sum, if the author truly hopes to change his readers' minds on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assumptions, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things, his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.
The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
MY RESPONSE
To own your house is like a dream come true. Article indicates that 70% of surveyed readers, of The Homebuilder magazine, are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. In the precedent statement, author claims that construction industry is likely to accelerate and will continue to offer lucrative opportunities for investment based on assumption that many of those surveyed readers will really build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. Though, his claim may well have some merits however, he presents a poorly reasoned argument purely based on unsupportive assumptions and questionable premises. As such, we can not accept his argument as valid as stated.
Firstly, the entire conclusion is merely based on upon number of readers who responded to the recently conducted survey. Author failed to provide additional details of the actual number of readers who responded. It is very possible that there were only 30 readers who responded to the survey and out of 30, only 21 readers (approx 70% of total respondent) indicated that they plan to build or purchase a new home.
In addition, author also assumes that there will be adequate financing available for all these buyers. There may be a credit crunch at local financial institutions, which may refuse to provide finance to the buyers. This assumption is more relevant considering very recent turmoil in the housing market, many financial institutions are not providing mortgage facility specially to the new buyers. It is quite possible that certain economic indicators showed improvement and therefore, 70% of respondents indicated the plan to buy or build a new home.
Lastly, author also assumes that there will be adequate supply by the builders or construction companies when demand increases. Without adequate research or details surrounding this assumption it is difficult to agree to author's conclusion. Overall, the author weakens his argument by making such assumptions and failing to provide explication of the links between actual number of respondents, financing options and adequate supply in the market and likelihood of accelerate in the construction industry he assumes exists.
Though there are several issues such as actual number of respondent to the survey, financing options available to the new buyers and existing market supply and demand of new home) with the author's reasoning at present, with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.
To sum, if the author truly hopes to change his readers' minds on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assumptions, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things, his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.
