Probability

This topic has expert replies
Legendary Member
Posts: 809
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:10 pm
Thanked: 50 times
Followed by:4 members

Probability

by akhpad » Mon May 17, 2010 1:21 am
Bill has a small deck of 12 playing cards made up of only 2 suits of 6 cards each. Each of the 6 cards within a suit has a different value from 1 to 6; thus, for each value from 1 to 6, there are two cards in the deck with that value. Bill likes to play a game in which he shuffles the deck, turns over 4 cards, and looks for pairs of cards that have the same value. What is the chance that Bill finds at least one pair of cards that have the same value?

Solution:
(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)

Method 1:
First find out chances of getting all cards different
Probability of selecting 1st card = 12/12
Probability of selecting 2st card = 10/11
Probability of selecting 3st card = 8/10
Probability of selecting 4st card = 6/9

Probability of selecting
Probability of selecting (all 4 cards different) = (12/12) * (10/11) * (8/10) * (6/9) = 16/33
Probability of selecting (at least one pain) = 1 - 16/33 = 17/33

Method 2:
Total combination with one or more pair = 6 * (10C2) - 6C2 = 5*51
Probability of selecting at least one pain = 5*51 / 495 = 17/33

Method 3:
Total combination with all different = 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 / 4! =240
Total no of selections = 12C4 = 495
Probability of selecting at least one pain = (495 - 240) / 495 = 17/33

Hence required probability = 17/33

My Q: Why do we need to divide by 4! in Method 3?
Source: — Problem Solving |

User avatar
GMAT Instructor
Posts: 3650
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:27 am
Location: India
Thanked: 267 times
Followed by:80 members
GMAT Score:760

by sanju09 » Mon May 17, 2010 3:56 am
akhp77 wrote:Bill has a small deck of 12 playing cards made up of only 2 suits of 6 cards each. Each of the 6 cards within a suit has a different value from 1 to 6; thus, for each value from 1 to 6, there are two cards in the deck with that value. Bill likes to play a game in which he shuffles the deck, turns over 4 cards, and looks for pairs of cards that have the same value. What is the chance that Bill finds at least one pair of cards that have the same value?

Solution:
(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)

Method 1:
First find out chances of getting all cards different
Probability of selecting 1st card = 12/12
Probability of selecting 2st card = 10/11
Probability of selecting 3st card = 8/10
Probability of selecting 4st card = 6/9

Probability of selecting
Probability of selecting (all 4 cards different) = (12/12) * (10/11) * (8/10) * (6/9) = 16/33
Probability of selecting (at least one pain) = 1 - 16/33 = 17/33

Method 2:
Total combination with one or more pair = 6 * (10C2) - 6C2 = 5*51
Probability of selecting at least one pain = 5*51 / 495 = 17/33

Method 3:
Total combination with all different = 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 / 4! =240
Total no of selections = 12C4 = 495
Probability of selecting at least one pain = (495 - 240) / 495 = 17/33

Hence required probability = 17/33

My Q: Why do we need to divide by 4! in Method 3?
You have shown a great piece of work, Akhilesh.

Well, in your method 3, 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 shows all possible arrangements of the four chosen cards, whereas we are looking for total combinations of those four cards, and that nCr = nPr/r!, therefore we need to divide 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 by 4! for the correct answer to the question.
The mind is everything. What you think you become. -Lord Buddha



Sanjeev K Saxena
Quantitative Instructor
The Princeton Review - Manya Abroad
Lucknow-226001

www.manyagroup.com

User avatar
Legendary Member
Posts: 526
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:47 pm
Location: India
Thanked: 68 times
GMAT Score:680

by harshavardhanc » Mon May 17, 2010 4:09 am
sanju09 wrote:
Well, in your method 3, 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 shows all possible arrangements of the four chosen cards, whereas we are looking for total combinations of those four cards, and that nCr = nPr/r!, therefore we need to divide 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 by 4! for the correct answer to the question.
did you mean 12*10*8*6 is some nPr ? How?
Regards,
Harsha

User avatar
GMAT Instructor
Posts: 3650
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:27 am
Location: India
Thanked: 267 times
Followed by:80 members
GMAT Score:760

by sanju09 » Mon May 17, 2010 4:33 am
harshavardhanc wrote:
sanju09 wrote:
Well, in your method 3, 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 shows all possible arrangements of the four chosen cards, whereas we are looking for total combinations of those four cards, and that nCr = nPr/r!, therefore we need to divide 12 * 10 * 8 * 6 by 4! for the correct answer to the question.
did you mean 12*10*8*6 is some nPr ? How?
sort of

there are four place numbers being filled in 12, 10, 8, and 6 number of ways in any order. Hence, all arrangements were considered here, we need to divide it by 4! in order to get the favorite combinations only.
The mind is everything. What you think you become. -Lord Buddha



Sanjeev K Saxena
Quantitative Instructor
The Princeton Review - Manya Abroad
Lucknow-226001

www.manyagroup.com

Legendary Member
Posts: 809
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:10 pm
Thanked: 50 times
Followed by:4 members

by akhpad » Tue May 18, 2010 5:00 am
Your answer to my question looks good. Thanks

Some more comment from other people please.