The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
Real estate market forms a very crucial part of the economy, its trend is one of the significant indicators of the economy. Though it may sound very easy, it is very difficult to measure or predict this market as a lot of factor goes into deciding its course. In the above argument, the author suggests real estate market boom based on a poll in The Homebuilder magazine. Though his argument may well have merits, it is based on questionable premises and assumptions which renders his conclusion unacceptable.
The primary issue with the author's argument lies in his unsubstantiated premises. He concludes about real estate boom based on a survey in a magazine which might not reflect the opinion of the mass. He fails to mention that the participant of the poll was a true representation of the people in terms of monetary power and social status. Moreover, he never mentioned about the sample size of the poll, a poll conducted with very few respondents can skew the result in either direction. The author's premises, the basis for his argument, lack any legitimate evidentiary support and render his conclusion unacceptable.
In addition, the author makes several assumptions that remain unproven. He assumes that the respondents have not committed on any existing project which has started probably 3 years back and is not going to help accelerating the industry any further. In addition, he also assumes that the demand will be high due to more number of people trying to buy new houses but never explained that supply of new homes is not at all time high which would affect negatively on the market. The author weakens his argument by making assumptions and failing to provide explication of the links between demand and supply he assumes exists.
While the author does have several key issues in his argument's premises and assumptions, that is not to say that the entire argument without base. He could have visited the demand supply ratio in the existing market, demographics of the potential buyers and sample size of the poll used. Though there are several issues with the author's reasoning at present, with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.
In sum, the author's illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. If the author truly hopes to change his readers' minds on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assumptions, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things, his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
Real estate market forms a very crucial part of the economy, its trend is one of the significant indicators of the economy. Though it may sound very easy, it is very difficult to measure or predict this market as a lot of factor goes into deciding its course. In the above argument, the author suggests real estate market boom based on a poll in The Homebuilder magazine. Though his argument may well have merits, it is based on questionable premises and assumptions which renders his conclusion unacceptable.
The primary issue with the author's argument lies in his unsubstantiated premises. He concludes about real estate boom based on a survey in a magazine which might not reflect the opinion of the mass. He fails to mention that the participant of the poll was a true representation of the people in terms of monetary power and social status. Moreover, he never mentioned about the sample size of the poll, a poll conducted with very few respondents can skew the result in either direction. The author's premises, the basis for his argument, lack any legitimate evidentiary support and render his conclusion unacceptable.
In addition, the author makes several assumptions that remain unproven. He assumes that the respondents have not committed on any existing project which has started probably 3 years back and is not going to help accelerating the industry any further. In addition, he also assumes that the demand will be high due to more number of people trying to buy new houses but never explained that supply of new homes is not at all time high which would affect negatively on the market. The author weakens his argument by making assumptions and failing to provide explication of the links between demand and supply he assumes exists.
While the author does have several key issues in his argument's premises and assumptions, that is not to say that the entire argument without base. He could have visited the demand supply ratio in the existing market, demographics of the potential buyers and sample size of the poll used. Though there are several issues with the author's reasoning at present, with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.
In sum, the author's illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. If the author truly hopes to change his readers' minds on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assumptions, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things, his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.
