Hi guys,
First time post here but a long time reader. Long story short I have my exam this sat and wanted to see where I stand on the AWA. If you guys can please help me rate my essay I would greatly appreciate it.
Thanks,
Mike
Topic 490: The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper. "Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be." Discuss how well reasoned . . . Etc.
The effectiveness of using presidential election opinion polls as forecasts of the election out come has become a hotly debated topic in the United States as of late. Some believe that the forecast offers the public a general idea of the election outcome while some others perceive the opinion poll as rather ineffective for its intended purpose. In the preceding statement, the author states that due the undecisive natures of the voters, forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore no better at prediction the outcome than a random guess would be. Though his claim may have merit, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument, based on unsupported assumptions and reasons. Until the author can provide support for these details, readers should not proceed with his recommendations.
The primary assumption that the author makes is that he assumes the sole purpose of the election poll is to predict the outcome of the elections. There are ,in fact several notable usage for the election poll other than for forecast. According to the most recent issue of TIMES magazine, they mentioned that while notable for its ability to forecast election outcomes, election polls often bring awareness to the voters to participate in the voting process. If the author were to acknowledge the other usages of the election poll while making the its primary role as a election predictor, he can better support his claim.
In addition, the author stated that many voters change their mind about who to vote until the last few days before the balloting. This is simply claim without support, many voters are staple voters of their party, for example in the recent poll done by the economist magazine, 70% of would be voters already made up their minds of who to vote a month ahead of the actual election. The author should provide more data or cite polls that prove his claim that many voters are undecided.
Furthermore, the author discuss that some voters do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. While this may be true, the portion of voter that behave this way are not the majority. In the same survey done by the economist it was stated that only 5% of the to be voters have not yet made up their mind and might not be decided until the election day. The author should note that although some people are still undecided the proportion of these people to the whole voting population should be taken into account.
In sum, the author's illogical argument is based on unsupported reasons and assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. Until the author fix his flaw in reasoning and further explicate his assumptions and provide evidentiary support, his poorly constructed argument will likely convince few people.
First time post here but a long time reader. Long story short I have my exam this sat and wanted to see where I stand on the AWA. If you guys can please help me rate my essay I would greatly appreciate it.
Thanks,
Mike
Topic 490: The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper. "Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be." Discuss how well reasoned . . . Etc.
The effectiveness of using presidential election opinion polls as forecasts of the election out come has become a hotly debated topic in the United States as of late. Some believe that the forecast offers the public a general idea of the election outcome while some others perceive the opinion poll as rather ineffective for its intended purpose. In the preceding statement, the author states that due the undecisive natures of the voters, forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore no better at prediction the outcome than a random guess would be. Though his claim may have merit, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument, based on unsupported assumptions and reasons. Until the author can provide support for these details, readers should not proceed with his recommendations.
The primary assumption that the author makes is that he assumes the sole purpose of the election poll is to predict the outcome of the elections. There are ,in fact several notable usage for the election poll other than for forecast. According to the most recent issue of TIMES magazine, they mentioned that while notable for its ability to forecast election outcomes, election polls often bring awareness to the voters to participate in the voting process. If the author were to acknowledge the other usages of the election poll while making the its primary role as a election predictor, he can better support his claim.
In addition, the author stated that many voters change their mind about who to vote until the last few days before the balloting. This is simply claim without support, many voters are staple voters of their party, for example in the recent poll done by the economist magazine, 70% of would be voters already made up their minds of who to vote a month ahead of the actual election. The author should provide more data or cite polls that prove his claim that many voters are undecided.
Furthermore, the author discuss that some voters do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. While this may be true, the portion of voter that behave this way are not the majority. In the same survey done by the economist it was stated that only 5% of the to be voters have not yet made up their mind and might not be decided until the election day. The author should note that although some people are still undecided the proportion of these people to the whole voting population should be taken into account.
In sum, the author's illogical argument is based on unsupported reasons and assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. Until the author fix his flaw in reasoning and further explicate his assumptions and provide evidentiary support, his poorly constructed argument will likely convince few people.
