Ask Stacy Blackman

My question is one of the very few you will get that's not a profile review! I have already done a lot of work towards improving my profile and feel pretty comfortable about it right now. My concern is that application volume seems to be increasing dramatically at all my target schools. For example, Cornell's appications were up 36% last year and I just heard that their Round 1 for this year is up 35% over last year! I guess the good news is that I plan to apply in Round 1 next year so I won't be a part of this years applicant pool, which looks very strong. However, my obvious concern is that applications could increase even further next year. I know that applications have been up sharply over the last few years and I read the BW article "MBA Applications Surge" that Stacy was quoted in that talked about last years high application volume and the fact that this year could be a record applicant pool. I have also read that GMAT registration and testing is up 10-15%. So, my question for you is: Do you have a feel for what to expect next year? There is clearly a trend toward increasing numbers of applicants over the last few years and the economy may be headed toward recession which also tends to increase application volume. However, at some point doesn't the potential market of MBA students reach a level of penetration/saturation where a large portion of the 25-35 year olds that would consider an MBA have already applied or are already enrolled in Bschool (Due to the high app volume this year and the 2-3 years prior)? I mean, application volume can't go up forever right? Do you think the volume next year might drop from this year's extremely high levels or do you think the upward trend in application volume will continue?

Thanks for your time. I realize that I am asking for pure speculation on your part but I figure that since you're tapped into this industry you might have some sort of feel for what's going to happen over the next 12 months.