Probability question - 4 dice are spinning my head

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If 4 fair dice are thrown simulatenously, what is the probability of getting at least one pair?

(I was able to compute the solution using Permutations, but I wanted to try calculating one pair and two pair probabilities)

Method1 -

One pair => there are 12/2 = 6 arrangements for a pair in XXYZ


(6*1*5*4) 6
----------- [First two dice form a pair, the other two don't]
(6*6*6*6)

=20/36 = 10/18

Similarly, Two different pair => there are 3 arrangements for a pair in XXYY

(6*1*5*1)*3
-----------
6*6*6*6

=5/72

Two same pair (i.e. four dice with the same number) => 6/(6*6*6*6) = 1/6*6*6

Total = 10/18 + 5/72 + 1/6*6*6 != 13/18, which is the correct answer. CRASHED

Please help :(


Method 2 (using perm) => 1-(6*5*4*3/6*6*6*6) = 13/18

Thanks
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by willrc » Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:37 am
Problems like this are often best approached by "inverting" the situation. What is the "opposite" of "getting at least one pair"? The answer is getting no pairs. Let's imagine rolling each die in turn with the aim of avoiding pairs. The first doesn't matter - we can't have any pairs with only one die. To avoid getting pairs with the subsequent dice, we must get one of 5, 4 and 3 possibilities respectively:

1 x 5/6 x 4/6 x 3/6 = 5/18

The inverse of this, 13/18, covers all situations where we didn't get no pairs - i.e. where we got at least one pair.
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