My first Essay - Analysis of an Argument

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My first Essay - Analysis of an Argument

by vineetbatra » Sat Jul 04, 2009 12:39 pm
Here is my first essay, would appreciate the response. A feedback will be greatly appreciated.

ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in a newspaper editorial:
"The claims of some politicians that we are on the brink of an energy crisis are misguided. We have enough oil in reserve to see us through any production shortage and the supply of in-ground oil is in no danger of running out any time soon. There is thus no need to set aside the technology and infrastructure of a century of oil-based energy."

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.

YOUR RESPONSE:
The conclusion drawn here by the speaker is that "There is no need to set aside the technology and infrastructure of oil-based energy". The conclusion is based on the premise that the world is not facing any supply shortages of oil and will not see anytime soon. The premise is to counter some politicians, who are suggesting that we are on the brink of an energy crisis.


The conclusion drawn by the speaker is based on an assumption that the supply we have an endless supply of oil reserves, however the speaker does not share his views on how will the world be able to sustain the supply against the ever increasing demand of oil, when no substantial new discoveries of oil has been done in last 40 years.


Also the speaker mentions that we will not be running out of Oil anytime soon, the important question
to be answered here is, how soon is soon, as per few estimates the oil reserves of the world will finish in about 40 years time.

The amount of dependence we have on oil is at its all time high, just last year in 2008, we faced an oil crisis when the oil prices went upto a record USD 150 per barrell, which almost collapsed the airline industry, and several automobile companies that were making cars with higher fuel consumption. This shows our dependence on oil, and how it can bring some of the biggest corporates to the brink of bankuraptcy.


Usually it takes a few years to a few decades to develop a new technology to its optimum level, and I do agree with the speaker that we should not set aside the technology and infrastructure of oil-based industry, instead harness this technology as a launching pad to get into alternate resorrces.


Long time ago I read a book "Who Moved My Cheese", where the premise of the book was to sniff the changes in advance to plan for it. We know that we are consuming the limited resources of oil and eventually we will hit against a wall where suddenly we will finish our cheese, it is imperative to act today for a secure tomorrow.
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by Stacey Koprince » Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:47 am
Received a PM asking me to respond.

I will give you some quick feedback, but FYI, I'm actually not supposed to analyze essays. I have only 8 hours a month to spend on BTG, and I'm supposed to spend it answering questions that will help the greatest possible number of people. A single essay can take 20-30 minutes to analyze fully, and the analysis mostly only helps the one person who wrote the essays. As a result, we decided a long time ago to avoid doing in-depth analysis of essays.

For "argument" essays, we are not actually supposed to say whether we agree or disagree with a particular conclusion or plan. That's what we're supposed to do on an "issue" essay. On argument essays, we're only supposed to evaluate how well the person supported his or her argument. Did the author actually make a good case for his conclusion? (Probably not - otherwise, we'd have nothing to write about!) What are the flaws in the reasoning? What type of information could the author have provided that would make a better case for his conclusion?

Eg, in this one, the author claims that we don't need to set aside our current way of doing things. He claims we have enough oil in reserve. He could bolster that claim by providing statistics on the amount in reserve, current consumption, and expected growth in consumption in the future. He doesn't provide any data, though, so that weakens his argument.

He also says the underground supply won't run out "any time soon." As you pointed out, what does "any time soon" actually mean? Also, yes, there's a lot of oil underground, but not all of that oil is recoverable. Is he talking about the supply of recoverable oil? Or all oil? Again, some specific statistics about what we'll need and what we can extract, while also factoring in what timeframe we're discussing, would help to solidify this guy's argument.

Approach these with the mindset that you don't know what the right answer is or whether this guy's conclusion is right. You're not trying to say whether you think his conclusion's right. You're just saying that he hasn't provided the best argument or the right kind of evidence to make a solid conclusion, and here's what he could do to improve his argument and make his conclusion more believable. That's all.
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by vineetbatra » Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:43 am
Hello Stacey,

Thank you very much for the invaluable feedback. I will keep your pointers in mind when I do my next Essay.

Thanks again,

Vineet

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