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weakens the conclusion

by gmatnmein2010 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:38 pm
In the first half of this year, from January to June, about three million videocassette recorders were sold. This number is only 35 percent of the total number of videocassette recorders sold last year. Therefore, total sales of videocassette recorders will almost certainly be lower for this year than they were for last year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
(A) The total number of videocassette recorders sold last year was lower than the total number sold in the year before that.
(B) Most people who are interested in owning a videocassette recorder have already purchased one.
(C) Videocassette recorders are less expensive this year than they were last year.
(D) Of the videocassette recorders sold last year, almost 60 percent were sold in January.
(E) Typically, over 70 percent of the sales of videocassette recorders made in a year occur in the months of November and December.

Confused b/n D and E
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by komal » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:40 pm
gmatnmein2010 wrote:In the first half of this year, from January to June, about three million videocassette recorders were sold. This number is only 35 percent of the total number of videocassette recorders sold last year. Therefore, total sales of videocassette recorders will almost certainly be lower for this year than they were for last year.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?

Conclusion : Sales of VCRs will be low this year because sales in the first 6 months of this year is only 35% of total number of VCRs sold last year.

Just because sales of first half of the year is low does not mean sales of second half will be low as well. Any answer choice which restates this should be the correct answer. Lets see which one does that for us.

(A) The total number of videocassette recorders sold last year was lower than the total number sold in the year before that.
Incorrect : Comparison of sales between last year n previous year is irrelevant to the scope of the argument.

(B) Most people who are interested in owning a videocassette recorder have already purchased one.
Incorrect : Most ppl does not mean ALL ppl. Hence there is always room for sales. Eliminated.

(C) Videocassette recorders are less expensive this year than they were last year.
Incorrect : If VCRs have become less expensive it could also mean increase in sales. This would strengthen the conclusion. Ruled Out.

(D) Of the videocassette recorders sold last year, almost 60 percent were sold in January.
Incorrect : This strengthens the argument by stating that majority of VCRs sold last year were in the first month itself.

(E) Typically, over 70 percent of the sales of videocassette recorders made in a year occur in the months of November and December.
Correct : This undermines the conclusion by stating that sales in first half of the year is not good enough predictor of sales in second half of the year.

Hope this helps : )
Last edited by komal on Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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by thephoenix » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:55 pm
Conclusion: total sales of videocassette recorders will almost certainly be lower for this year than they were for last year

To weaken it we need to show that tot sales of videocassette recorders will not be lower for this year than they were for last year
Now we need to find an option which helps us to prove our statement
a) by proving sales last year was < than prev year we prove nothing...its out of scope
b) irrelevant; basically this does nothing to the argument
c) cost of VC is not an issue here ; we are interested in VCR's irrelevant
d) let 1000 were sold last year so according to D 600 were sold in jan of last year and 400 in rest of the mnth and according to stimulus 350 were sold in first half og this year but we dnt know how much is sold in rest part of the year ; so we cant conclude what we want to
hence it doesn't help us to prove our statement
e) by POE it's the ans at this poiny in real exam solving this statement will kill time so sme times POE helps
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