Received a PM on this one. It looks like the OA has already been disclosed as D. Below is my understanding of the question and answer choices.
P1: The futures market lets investors speculate on future products before they are produced.
P2: If a poor pork bellies supply is expected later, pork bellies' futures prices rise.
P3: If a bountiful pork bellies supply is expected, pork bellies futures prices fall.
P4: This morning, swineologists predicted an oncoming influx of much-needed slop in the pigpen regions starting tomorrow.
P5: Sufficient slop is essential for the survival of a strong current supply of fuller pork bellies.
C1: Prices of pork bellies futures will decline dramatically today.
Notes on Stimulus: First off, "pork bellies" are pigs. A swineologist is apparently an expert on pigs. P2 and P3 are just stating the basic law of supply and demand. If pork bellies supply is down then prices will rise (P2), and if pork bellies supply is up then prices will fall (P3). P4 and P5 combined tell you that pork bellies supply is expected to rise. This is because swineologists predict an oncoming influx of much-needed slop and because sufficient slop is essential for the survival of a strong current supply of fuller pork bellies. In other words, the oncoming influx of slop will result in a strong supply of fuller pork bellies in the current period.
Notice that the supply of pork bellies is determined by the total weight of the pork bellies and not the total number of pork bellies. The slop increases the weight of the pork bellies but not necessarily the number of pork bellies. This increases the supply of pork bellies because the total weight of the pork bellies (the amount of pork meat that can be obtained from slaughtering the pork bellies) has gone up.
Question Stem: Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument above?
A) "Pigs that do not consume adequate slop during the critical growth stage will not produce a full, rich product." INCORRECT. This strengthens the argument because it confirms P4 and P5. The argument is based on the fact that a strong supply of slop results in fuller (heavier) pork bellies. This answer states that "pigs that do not consume adequate slop will not produce a full, rich product". This is consistent with the argument.
B) "This fiscal year, pork bellies futures prices have varied more erratically compared to last year." INCORRECT. This answer is not relevant to the conclusion that "prices of pork bellies futures will decline dramatically today". The conclusion is drawn from the connection between the supply of slop and its affect on pork belly supply. The fact that prices are more volatile this year is not relevant to this argument.
C) The slop that swineologists predict for tomorrow is only expected to be distributed well outside the pigpen areas. INCORRECT. First off, the pigpen is where the pork bellies (pigs) live. This answer would appear to imply that the slop will not be distributed to the pigs. IMO there is not enough information for us to make this jump.
For example, the slop may in fact be distributed and stored well outside the pigpen areas. This does not mean that the slop will remain there. The farmer may distribute the slop from the storage area to the pigpens. This makes sense because you would not want to feed your entire shipment of slop to the pigs all at once. You would probably store it offsite and then feed it to the pigs consistently over time.
IMO this answer does not strengthen or weaken the conclusion.
D) Today, a press release by pork experts said that the foot-in-mouth disease decimating some of the pork bellies supply will spread widely before the start of the slaughtering season. CORRECT. This answer states that a "disease that is decimating some of the pork bellies supply will spread widely before the start of the slaughtering season". If the disease spreads "widely" and more pork bellies die before the start of the slaughtering season then the supply for this year's harvest will go down. Per premise P2, a drop in supply will result in a rise in prices. This is counter to the conclusion of the argument that "prices of pork bellies futures will decline dramatically today".
This answer weakens the conclusion that "prices will decline" because it gives a reason why prices may rise.
E) Investors who speculate in pork bellies futures rarely take physical possession of the pork bellies they trade. INCORRECT. This answer is not relevant to the argument. The conclusion is that "prices of pork bellies futures will decline dramatically today". Whether investors in the futures market take physical possession of the pork bellies does not affect the price of pork bellies. This answer has no affect on the conclusion.
