The tobacco industry (OG)

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The tobacco industry (OG)

by clawhammer » Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:44 pm
I'm asking this because I haven't got a clear answer.

The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the United States this year, the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.

Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:

A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking.
B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.
C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking.
D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past.
E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.

---

OA is A. But can you guys please explain why not B ?

- The number of teenage children who started smoking this year > the number of adults who quit. - I get this.

HOWEVER: It doesn't say the number of children who was smoking last year remained the same!

This increase in number can make up for the number of children from the last year who stopped smoking?

For example:
* Number of teenage smokers in '09: 20
* Number of teenage smokers in '10: 20 (10 began smoking this year + 10 stopped?)
- And total number of teenage smokers could even decrease?
* Decrease in adult smokers in '10: 10

That still wont solve the issue.

B says the number of teenagers who started smoking this year increased, NOT total number of teenage smokers increased.

Can anyone help clearing my confusion? - Where am I getting it wrong?
Source: — Critical Reasoning |

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by ankurmit » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:13 pm
Stem B is not saying anything about number of children who was smoking last year.

WE cant assume that children were smoking last year.

It is mentioned teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.

10 adults quit smoking but 15 teen agers started smoking.Hence tobacco sale will increase.

Here we cant assume that 10 adults may be consuming less tobacco than 15 teen agers :)

I hope it help.
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by ankurmit » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:13 pm
Stem B is not saying anything about number of children who were smoking last year.

WE cant assume that teen agers were smoking last year.

It is mentioned that teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.

example:

10 adults quit smoking but 15 teen agers started smoking.Hence tobacco sale will increase.

Here we cant assume that 10 adults may be consuming more tobacco than 15 teen agers :)
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by clawhammer » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:22 pm
ankurmit wrote:
WE cant assume that teen agers were smoking last year.
- Why not? :(

And the answer choice says: teenagers who began smoking this year increased. Dont think that implies no teenagers were smoking before, and that wont be logical either.

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by Testluv » Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:16 pm
OA is A. But can you guys please explain why not B ?

- The number of teenage children who started smoking this year > the number of adults who quit. - I get this.

HOWEVER: It doesn't say the number of children who was smoking last year remained the same!
Choice B by itself presents a possible explanation of the paradox. Are there ways to make B impossible as an explanation? Yes. The same can be said about choices C, D and E as well. (Take choice E as an example: if the increase in the amount of tobacco in exported cigarettes is less than the amount by which total tobacco sales have increased, then it too won't resolve the paradox).

In order to resolve the paradox you need only provide a logical basis for its resolution; it doesn't have to be something that must resolve in all possible cases. This is actually a common pitfall in explain the paradox questions, so this is an important takeaway for this type of question.
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by GMATMadeEasy » Wed Oct 13, 2010 2:42 am
good question picked up .

C > During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking

I always had dubt about answer choice C which says that "number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff " > number of people who have quit smoking

that means effective increase in sales of tobacco but decrease in number of smokers .
here also we assume that it is all about adults as testluv mentioned the point ?

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by rooster » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:04 am
clawhammer wrote:I'm asking this because I haven't got a clear answer.

The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the United States this year, the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.

Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:

A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking.
B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.
C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking.
D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past.
E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.

---

OA is A. But can you guys please explain why not B ?

- The number of teenage children who started smoking this year > the number of adults who quit. - I get this.

HOWEVER: It doesn't say the number of children who was smoking last year remained the same!

This increase in number can make up for the number of children from the last year who stopped smoking?

For example:
* Number of teenage smokers in '09: 20
* Number of teenage smokers in '10: 20 (10 began smoking this year + 10 stopped?)
- And total number of teenage smokers could even decrease?
* Decrease in adult smokers in '10: 10

That still wont solve the issue.

B says the number of teenagers who started smoking this year increased, NOT total number of teenage smokers increased.

Can anyone help clearing my confusion? - Where am I getting it wrong?
In order to answer this question, you need to look at the question they are asking:

Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke

A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking.

In order for A to be a valid answer, that would mean that the number of women quitting is still greater than the total number of adults. We are not given this, so we need more assumptions - we need to know the number of adults, what if there were no women smokers that quit? That would mean the number of adults is greater, and the reason would not be valid.

B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.

this is clear-cut reason. Teenage smokers was not registered the previous year, but the number of adults was. Thus, while the number of adults has lowered, there is still a reason for tobacco sales doing well.

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by clawhammer » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:06 am
Thanks guys. I forgot to keep in mind one crucial GMAT requirement: choosing the BEST ANSWER. Among these two, I had to figure which is almost always doesn't explain the ambiguity between sales increase and adult smoker decrease.

Thanks once again. I hope I can keep focus and recall the fact I'm doing CR not DS in such problems.