New Yorkers

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adi_800: Legendary Member; Posts: 544; Joined: Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:14 amFollowed by: 2 members; Location: Pune, India; Thanked: 31 times

by adi_800 » Fri Jul 30, 2010 7:51 pm

Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.

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Source: Beat The GMAT — Critical Reasoning | Fri Jul 30, 2010 7:51 pm

reply2spg: Legendary Member; Posts: 1261; Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2008 3:46 am; Thanked: 27 times; GMAT Score:570

by reply2spg » Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:48 pm

IMO D

adi_800 wrote:Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.

Sudhanshu
(have lot of things to learn from all of you)

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reply2spg: Legendary Member; Posts: 1261; Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2008 3:46 am; Thanked: 27 times; GMAT Score:570

by reply2spg » Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:16 pm

As usual I know and confirmed that I am wrong, can somebody please help me understand what does E mean?

Sudhanshu
(have lot of things to learn from all of you)

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amritashwar_lal2k: Newbie | Next Rank: 10 Posts; Posts: 9; Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2009 9:45 am; Location: India; Thanked: 3 times

by amritashwar_lal2k » Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:30 pm

IMO C

The argument is to convince that the conclusion : "New Yorker's belief that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer" is false.

The evidences are

1) three New York winters with the lowest average temperature => summers with average temperature was extremely high

2) two hottest New York winters => summers whose average temperatures were extremely high

The two evidences doesn't strenghtens the author's stand, as the evidences are inconclusive.

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Haaress: Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts; Posts: 151; Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:07 pm; Thanked: 14 times

by Haaress » Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:31 pm

Is E the correct answer.

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deepakdewani: Junior | Next Rank: 30 Posts; Posts: 24; Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 3:00 am; GMAT Score:770

by deepakdewani » Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:47 pm

Should be E.

Greed is good!

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FightWithGMAT: Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts; Posts: 364; Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 5:13 amFollowed by: 3 members; Thanked: 31 times

by FightWithGMAT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:49 am

adi_800 wrote:Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.

narrowed down to C and E.
A: we dont care about other locations
B: No, it is not a circular reasoning for sure.
D: it is not a casual, but a conditional relationship.

Now,

I would pick C. The author produced examples to show that what NYorkers believe is False. He wants to validate the belief. But he seems to be failing in that.

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diebeatsthegmat: Legendary Member; Posts: 1119; Joined: Fri May 07, 2010 8:50 amFollowed by: 3 members; Thanked: 29 times

by diebeatsthegmat » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:16 pm

adi_800 wrote:Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.

E should be the answer. what is the answer?

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goyalsau: Legendary Member; Posts: 866; Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 6:46 pm; Location: Gwalior, India; Thanked: 31 times

by goyalsau » Fri Sep 24, 2010 12:57 am

one more E
what the OA?

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arpita@gurome: GMAT Instructor; Posts: 91; Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 11:05 pmFollowed by: 42 members; Location: Mumbai, India; Thanked: 33 times

by arpita@gurome » Fri Sep 24, 2010 1:02 am

As stated it is a reasoning flaw question.

Conclusion - Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer.

Let's do some prephrasing. The author of the argument says that extreme temperatures in winter lead to extreme temperatures in next summer, and then provides two examples one has very low winters and another has high winter temperatures and both lead high temperature summers!! Thus refuting his / her own conclusion!
One reason she did this mistake might be due to the fact that she considers only very cold winters and very hot summers as extremes, but actually hot winters and cold summers are also extremes!

Now we have a grip of what is going on in this question stimulus let's look at choices:

A - Out of scope, need to focus on NY
B - No circular reasoning is evident. This is an enticing choice since a lot of logic errors can be attributed to circular logic.
C - Given the facts it is a pretty good argument. The facts seem pretty solid, still let us keep it.
D - The evidence is proving the relationship false. A causal relationship is being assumed although it is proved to be false. Hence do not consider.
E - This fits the prephrase smack on! It breaks the logic of the argument.

We have two contenders - C is weak as explained above whereas E is a clear fit.

Hence choose E

Arpita Sen
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Gurome, Inc.
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vishalj: Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts; Posts: 104; Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2007 9:03 pm; Thanked: 4 times

by vishalj » Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:40 am

I chose C. The reason I didn't pick E because I thought that the words were jumbled. If the choice were " The evidence presented refutes the claim it is intended to support", I would have picked it. I thought that the author delivered a claim and then evidence to support the claim. However, the last evidence refuted it.

Did I miss something?

E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.

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samareshgupte: Junior | Next Rank: 30 Posts; Posts: 17; Joined: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:27 am

by samareshgupte » Sun Mar 25, 2012 7:28 pm

vishalj wrote:I chose C. The reason I didn't pick E because I thought that the words were jumbled. If the choice were " The evidence presented refutes the claim it is intended to support", I would have picked it. I thought that the author delivered a claim and then evidence to support the claim. However, the last evidence refuted it.

Did I miss something?

E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.

The author is trying not to support but to refute, as evident from the phrase 'falsely believe that', the claim.

moreover, both cold and warm winters result in extreme summers. Hence New Yorker are right in believing extreme summers will soon follow.

E is a stronger contender than C. C states about insufficiency. Let us assume C is correct for a while. If the argument lacks evidence, what is it that will make the argument more complete? Perhaps nothing.

Hope that helps.

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tanviet: Legendary Member; Posts: 1404; Joined: Tue May 20, 2008 6:55 pmFollowed by: 2 members; Thanked: 18 times

by tanviet » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:46 am

arpita@gurome wrote:As stated it is a reasoning flaw question.

Conclusion - Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer.

Let's do some prephrasing. The author of the argument says that extreme temperatures in winter lead to extreme temperatures in next summer, and then provides two examples one has very low winters and another has high winter temperatures and both lead high temperature summers!! Thus refuting his / her own conclusion!
One reason she did this mistake might be due to the fact that she considers only very cold winters and very hot summers as extremes, but actually hot winters and cold summers are also extremes!

Now we have a grip of what is going on in this question stimulus let's look at choices:

A - Out of scope, need to focus on NY
B - No circular reasoning is evident. This is an enticing choice since a lot of logic errors can be attributed to circular logic.
C - Given the facts it is a pretty good argument. The facts seem pretty solid, still let us keep it.
D - The evidence is proving the relationship false. A causal relationship is being assumed although it is proved to be false. Hence do not consider.
E - This fits the prephrase smack on! It breaks the logic of the argument.

We have two contenders - C is weak as explained above whereas E is a clear fit.

Hence choose E

Thank you expert. This is very hard question and will appeare on gmat at the end.
I appreciate your prephrasing process. I apply prephrasing and see effective

Prephrasing is particularly effective for questions which have the correct answers which are based on an assumption. is this correct? pls , tell me more of your prethinking process. pls, tell me the steps you do when you see a CR problem.

for this question and other question, prethinking is key to finding the answer.

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killer1387: Legendary Member; Posts: 581; Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2011 7:53 amFollowed by: 5 members; Thanked: 52 times

by killer1387 » Tue Mar 27, 2012 4:23 am

STRAIGHT E

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venkart89: Junior | Next Rank: 30 Posts; Posts: 16; Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:05 pm; Location: Chennai

by venkart89 » Tue Mar 27, 2012 9:24 pm

Option E

800 is my lucky number.

https://cat4iimgmat4isb.blogspot.in

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